Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 260226
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1025 PM EDT MON JUL 25 2016

...VALID 0225Z TUE JUL 26 2016 - 12Z TUE JUL 26 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


TX PANHANDLE/OK
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORWARD PROPAGATING TO THE EAST INTO AN
INSTABILITY POOL ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AT THE PRESENT TIME,
BEING FED BY INSTABILITY BROUGHT INTO THE AREA BY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW
OF 20 KTS FROM THE SOUTH.  ALSO, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
CONSOLIDATING INDEPENDENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IS MEAGER ACROSS OK AT THE PRESENT TIME, A BROAD AREA OF
2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN OK AND THE TX
PANHANDLE.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 1.3-2" ACROSS THE
REGION PER GPS VALUES, ABOVE THE MINIMUM THRESHOLD FOR A BROADER
SCALE THREAT.  FOR DAYS NOW, CONVECTION HAS BEEN MIGRATING FROM
THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
SEE LITTLE REASON WHY THIS WOULDN`T OCCUR AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO CELL MERGERS CAUSED BY THE EASTWARD MOVING
CONVECTION FROM THE TX PANHANDLE MERGING IN WITH THE OK ACTIVITY.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A MODERATE TO STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL IN OK, OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z SPC WRF AND 12Z NSSL WRF.  THE
18Z REGIONAL GEM IN PARTICULAR ADVERTISES AN ALMOST 9" MAXIMUM
NORTH OF OKLAHOMA CITY.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE SUPPORTS HOURLY
RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5", AND THERE IS CONCERN THAT IF AN MCV FORMS
WITH THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE THAT IT WOULD
EVENTUALLY HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION ACROSS OK.  THE GENERAL THREAT
APPEARS TO BE FROM LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE, WHICH COULD
CHALLENGE THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN THIS AREA.  RAISED THE
THREAT LEVEL FOR FLASH FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL UP TO THE SEE
TEXT/MARGINAL LEVEL, BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS.

ROTH
$$





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