Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 180131
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
930 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 00Z SAT APR 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SE AAF 80 SSW PAM 15 ENE KVOA 35 N KVKY BIX 20 N MOB
20 ESE GZH 10 WNW 11J 20 E ABY 10 SSW AMG 20 WSW BQK 20 N NRB
15 NW SGJ 30 E GNV 10 WNW OCF 40 S CTY 55 SE AAF.

MADE ONLY VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.  THE
INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD AHEAD
OF THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.
OVERALL---MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO---WITH
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING ENHANCING CONVECTION
CONTINUING OFF THE LA COAST.  THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE DOWNSTREAM PUSH OF THE DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE LOW MOVES ASHORE ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA---AND SUBSEQUENTLY THE SPEED AT WHICH RAIN PUSHES
DOWNSTREAM.  AT THE MOMENT---WPC LEANED TOWARD THE TIMING OF THE
ECMWF WHICH WAS IN BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS AND SLOWER NAM.  IN
RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY---THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF
THE SOUTH--RAISING PW VALUES TO 2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE THE MEAN FROM IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUTH OF THE
MS---EASTWARD ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE---NORTH FL AND INTO THE
COASTAL SOUTHEAST.  THE INCREASING PWS AND STRENGTHENING DYNAMICS
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD THRU THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
COAST STATES.  THERE IS A STRONG MODEL SIGNAL FOR POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD..WITH
SHORT TERM TOTALS OF 1-2"+ AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6"+.

TERRY
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.