Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010134
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
933 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI AUG 01 2014 - 00Z SAT AUG 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE 4CR 35 E ALM 40 WNW GDP 45 W GDP 10 ESE ELP 35 WNW MMCS
40 SSE DMN 45 SSW DMN 45 SW DMN 30 WSW SVC 50 NW SVC 60 SSE SJN
35 ESE SJN 40 WSW GNT 20 NNW GNT 20 WNW 4SL 35 SSW E33
25 SSE E33 20 N SKX 25 E SKX 40 S RTN 45 E CQC 20 ESE 4CR.

MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NM WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SLOW-MOVING CONVECTION FOCUSING ALONG THE
FAVORED ERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF NM UNDER A WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~1.50 INCHES COMBINED WITH
850-700 HPA INFLOW OF 20+ KTS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
WILL SUPPORT THIS ACTIVITY.   HEATING MEET THE CRITERIA FOR THE
WET MULTI-CELL ENVIRONMENT.   MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD AREAS OF TALL
SKINNY CAPES WITH NO LOW-LEVEL DRY INTRUSIONS ALONG WITH WEAK
STEERING FLOW OF LESS THEN 10 KTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NM/EXTREME WESTERN TX SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SLOW MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE RATHER LOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NM DUE TO SOME RECENT RAIN..AND GIVEN THE
ABOVE..KEPT A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE RHP BCB 25 NNW LYH HBI 10 ENE UDG 30 WSW MYR 55 ESE CHS
45 SE CHS 30 E NBC 25 NE JYL 15 SSE AGS 10 E 3J7 10 WNW LZU
10 S 47A 10 S DNN 20 NNE RHP.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SSE GRD 15 W 27A 15 NW CEU 20 SW AVL 20 W MRN 10 NNE HKY
10 NNE AKH 25 SW UZA 10 SSE GRD.

ONGOING CONVECTION IN SC HAS LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE STATE, INCREASING THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT
FOR TONIGHT.  OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY..850 HPA INFLOW INTO
THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GA AND SC INCREASES TO OVER 25
KTS..LIKELY SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION WITH
HEAVY RAINS.  AS AN 850 HPA LOW MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS, HEAVY
RAINS SHOULD SHIFT UP INTO SOUTHWEST VA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE
JULY/EARLY AUGUST..IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE.  THIS SUGGESTS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2" AN HOUR ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS BACKBUILD..OR MORE
LIKELY TRAIN.  ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD BREACH THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.  TOWARDS THE NC
COAST, THE GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT ON A POSSIBLE SIGNAL WITHIN
OUR SECONDARY RAINFALL MAXIMUM WITHIN THE MARSHES OF EASTERN NC,
GENERALLY EAST OF I-95, SO LEFT THEM OUT OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
AREAS.

TERRY


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