Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 270602
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...VALID 06Z FRI MAR 27 2015 - 12Z SAT MAR 28 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...FLORIDA...

THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A
PROGRESSIVE SQUALL LINE CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.
OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST GULF MAY
EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL FARTHER SOUTH
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES. THE WPC FORECAST PLACES THE
AXIS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL SOUTH OF INTERSATTE 4...TOWARD FORT
MEYERS TO NEAR MELBOURNE. THIS WOULD BE MOST SIMILAR TO THE 00Z
WRF-ARW AND WRF-NMM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO
1.50-1.75 INCHES...SUGGESTING BRIEF INTENSE RAIN RATES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING MORE THAN 2 INCHES IN A SHORT TIME. THIS MAY PRODUCE
STANDING WATER IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS. THE REGION HAS BEEN DRY IN
RECENT WEEKS...HOWEVER...AND FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
RUNNING HIGH. WITH MODERATE FORCING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM...THE ODDS OF REPEAT CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IN
EXCESS OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE APPEARS LOW. NO ORGANIZED AREAS OF
RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ARE EXPECTED.


BURKE
$$




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