Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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000
FOUS30 KWBC 310819
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
418 AM EDT WED AUG 31 2016

...VALID 12Z WED AUG 31 2016 - 12Z THU SEP 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
60 SE DUG 50 NE DUG 60 NE DUG 40 N SVC 30 NW GNT 20 SSW E33
40 S MYP 25 NNE MYP 10 SSE CCU 20 SW APA 30 SE PUB 25 ESE RTN
25 WNW CAO 40 NE SPD 45 E LAA 30 SE MCK 15 ESE HJH MKC 40 SW TBN
25 NNW HRO 20 WNW RVS 15 ENE GOK 10 N PWA 25 WNW CHK 45 NNW BPG
20 SSE INK 45 ESE E38 95 S MRF.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 E CKB 25 W CRW 25 SE ILN 15 NNW SGH 10 S TOL 10 SW HZY
25 SSW FIG 10 ENE SEG 10 SE AVP MMU 10 SE DOV 2W6 JYO 20 S 2G4
10 E CKB.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 S CWHV 25 SSE CWHV 20 SW GNR 20 NNW 1P1 40 NW SCH 20 SW ART
CTWN 10 NE CTWN.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
85 SSW PAM 10 NNW AAF AYS 40 N CHS 10 S CPC MRH 35 SSW HSE.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WNW ATY HON 30 WSW KY19 15 W MOT 15 WSW K06D 30 ESE DVL KGWR
20 WNW ATY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 S AAF 25 E AAF 20 WSW 40J 15 NE CTY 15 NNE VDF 10 ENE PGD
15 SSW FMY 40 W APF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SW HYS 30 SSW CNK 20 SE SLN 25 NNE EMP 30 S EMP PNC
20 WNW CSM 35 WNW CDS 20 WSW LBB 25 NNW INK 45 WSW PEQ
35 SSW GDP 35 W GDP 35 E ALM 20 SSE 4CR CVS 15 S GUY 10 NNE DDC
30 SW HYS.


DAY 1...

FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
T.D. #9 IS STILL EXPECTED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER TO
INTENSIFY (AS OF 09Z) WHILE RECURVING THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL
GULF. WPC QPF REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE 00Z CYCLE, WITH
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS REMAINING
LARGELY CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.  AMOUNTS OVER THE
GULF WERE LOWERED FROM THE 06Z WPC QPF CYCLE PER THE MOST RECENT
GUIDANCE.  CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD TEND TO INHIBIT
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
RAINS FROM THE WEST COAST COULD SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FL
IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BAROCLINIC (IN THE DEW POINT FIELD)
TROUGH.  THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTER SHOT MAXIMA BETWEEN
FORT MYERS AND CEDAR KEY IN THE 5-10" RANGE, WHICH DUE TO
DISAGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE/RELATED UNCERTAINTY KEEPS THE FLASH
FLOOD RISK AS SLIGHT.

MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SC/GA/NORTHEAST FL COASTS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF A WEAK LOW,
ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY MORNING AND FOCUSING ALONG SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE ARE
ADVERTISED BY THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING,
WHICH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.


SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
MODEST EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A MOIST AIRMASS AND A NEARBY
BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD AT THE SURFACE AND 850 HPA ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS HEAVY RAINS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF KS AND OK.  THE 00Z GFS AND 21Z SREF MASS FIELDS
SUPPORTED A SOLUTION CLOSEST TO THE 00Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF/TO SOME
DEGREE 00Z WRF NSSL WHICH WERE USED AS THE QPF TEMPLATE.
SATURATED SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD RISK ELEVATED IN SOUTHEAST NM, THE TX PANHANDLE,
AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS, WHILE THE DEGREE OF FORECAST RAINFALL
COULD CAUSE PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OK TO BE IN PLAY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL-WISE.


DAKOTAS
~~~~~~~
A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AT 850
HPA HAS BEGUN TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS DECENT LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW IMPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE INTERACTS WITH 1-1.25"
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.  WENT TOWARDS THE MORE SOUTHERN
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HERE DUE TO RADAR TRENDS.  AS SOME OF THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ADVERTISES LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-3" RANGE,
THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHERE CELLS TRAIN.


NEW ENGLAND/OH/MID-ATLANTIC STATES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF ORGANIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY AMOUNTS AS IT
INTERACTS WITH DEEP/ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ALONG A COLD FRONT
PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE REGION.  THE PATTERN IN THIS AREA IS MOST
IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS -- THE 12Z ECMWF APPEARED TO BE TOO DRY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PA/MD/NJ/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHEN COMPARED TO
THE OTHER GUIDANCE.  ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND FROM PORTIONS OF OH ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA, MD, AND NEAR THE PA/NJ BORDER -- PLACED A MARGINAL
RISK IN THESE LOCATIONS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE ARE
ADVERTISED BY THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE, WHICH SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

ROTH
$$




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