Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261904
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016

...VALID 21Z MON SEP 26 2016 - 12Z TUE SEP 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
145 WNW MMMV 50 SSE E38 45 NNE 6R6 25 ENE SJT 35 SSE BWD
15 ESE BMQ 15 ESE HYI 40 SW 3T5 35 N VCT 25 WNW SGR 15 NE IAH
35 ENE IAH 35 WNW BPT 15 W BPT 20 SW BPT 30 SSW BPT 20 ENE KXIH.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NE OQT 20 ENE LNP 10 E BLF PSK 15 SSE HLX MRN AVL 15 S RHP
10 NNE RMG 20 E 8A0 10 NW 4A9 20 NE OQT.


1900 UTC UPDATE

SOUTH TX

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO REMOVE THE SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX.  THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH TX WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  WHILE PW VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT
OVER SOUTH TX THIS PERIOD---MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR DECREASING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH TX AND A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP POTENTIAL TO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH
TX COAST AND INTO FAR NORTHEAST MEXICO.  WITH THE EXPECTED
DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION---THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTH TX ALSO
EXPECTED TO DECREASE.  THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS TAKEN
OUT---WITH A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA MAINTAINED.

SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS--A MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS ADDED FOR
ENHANCING CONVECTION CURRENTLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PUSHING INTO THIS REGION. FAVORABLE UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND WELL
DEFINED FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  WHILE FFG VALUES ARE HIGH ACROSS THIS
REGION---HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1"+ IN AN HOUR OR LESS MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

ORAVEC
$$




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