Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 121402
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EST SUN NOV 12 2017

...VALID 15Z SUN NOV 12 2017 - 12Z MON NOV 13 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE CLM 25 NNW PWT 10 NNW PWT 15 W PWT 10 W SHN 20 NE HQM
20 N HQM 25 NNW HQM 30 SSE UIL 10 ESE UIL 20 ENE UIL 20 W CLM
10 SE CLM.


15 UTC UPDATE...

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE.


...OLYMPIC PENINSULA...

THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE STRENGTHENING DAY 1
ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST FROM NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA---NORTHWARD
ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COASTS AS STRONG HEIGHT FALLS
ROUND THE BASE OF THE MEAN NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVE TOWARD THE WASHINGTON-OREGON COASTS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.  WHILE PW VALUES DO INCREASE IN THIS STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL FLOW---THEY DO NOT BECOME VERY ANOMALOUS---ONLY REACHING
SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.  THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY
WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY TOTALS THIS PERIOD---WITH MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY TOTALS FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
COAST RANGE---NORTHWARD ALONG THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON COAST
RANGE AND OLYMPIC RANGE AND INLAND ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND
NORTHERN OREGON CASCADES.  THE GREATEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE
OLYMPIC RANGE WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO
THE STRENGTHENING SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MUCH OF
THE HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWING MAX TOTALS OF 5"+ HERE.  .10-.25" PER
HOUR TOTALS POSSIBLE IN THE MAX PRECIP REGIONS WHICH MAY PRODUCE
LONGER TERM RUNOFF ISSUES.

PEREIRA/ORAVEC
$$





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