Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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711
FOUS30 KWBC 040056
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EST WED FEB 03 2016

...VALID 01Z THU FEB 04 2016 - 12Z THU FEB 04 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AGS 15 SW MEB 10 SE PGV 40 W HSE 20 ESE MRH 25 E SUT
35 E CHS 15 S SVN 30 SSW 40J 20 NE AAF 15 ESE ABY 15 SSW AGS.


1900 UTC UPDATE

THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WITH THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN U.S.  THE PREVIOUS AREA WAS TRIMMED ON
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN ENDS FROM CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHWARD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND THRU THE APPALACHIANS.
ASIDE FROM THE CHANGES IN THE PREVIOUS AREA...THERE ARE NO CHANGES
TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST RATIONALE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONT WILL
REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE...2.5 TO 3+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
THE MEAN DAY.  THE LATEST BLENDED TPW LOOPS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTIONS TO BOTH THE EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE ANOMALOUS PW
VALUES...ALONG WITH THE  AFOREMENTIONED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT
AND FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD HEAVY TOTALS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT.  TRAINING
OF CELLS IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
POSSIBLE  IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  IN
AREAS OF TRAINING...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

ORAVEC
$$





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