Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180659
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

...VALID 06Z MON AUG 18 2014 - 12Z TUE AUG 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 SW OLS 30 ENE YUM 50 NE BLH 15 WSW IFP 30 SE HND 15 ENE LSV
25 W SGU 40 E SGU 45 N GCN 25 NNE FLG 25 ESE INW 30 SE SJN
55 NE SAD 15 NE SAD 20 SE SAD 40 ENE DUG 95 SE DUG 80 NE MMHO
90 SW OLS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ENE MQY 30 NNW JKL 30 SSW EKN 20 SE NYG 30 ESE WAL 95 SE WAL
55 E FFA 10 SSE RWI DAN 15 ENE GEV 25 NW AVL 15 W FTY 15 N NMM
10 WNW BQP 20 ESE TXK 10 N M89 25 W UTA 35 SE MKL 35 ENE MQY.


...PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE
VALLEY...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MID ATLANTIC...

UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH SLOWLY E-SE
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...THE AXIS
OF ANOMALOUS PW VALUES (BTWN 1.5-1.75 INCHES) AND HIGHER LLVL
THETA-E ALONG THE TROWAL ZONE REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
TUE. THE PRE-FRONTAL LLVL INFLOW NEARLY PARALLEL TO AND AT TIMES
EXCEEDING THE MEAN 850-300 MB FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS...AND AS SUCH LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR AND/OR 3-4 INCHES WITHIN 3
HOURS WILL CAUSE LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES. OTHERWISE...AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1-1.5 INCHES.


...SOUTHWEST...


DRAWN BY SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTH ALONG
THE CA COAST... A WEALTH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE/MID LEVEL ENERGY
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST/FOUR CORNERS REGION ON TUES BEFORE
THE FLOW RELAXES SOME ON WED AND THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE DIGGING WESTERLIES TO EJECT OUT INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN APPEARS RATHER PRONOUNCED LATER
THIS AFTERNON INTO TONIGHT...AS THE FOCUS IS DIRECTED INTO AZ/SRN
UT AND WRN NM. THIS IS AN AREA WHERE WPC PLACED A SLIGHT THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR
LOCALLY ORGANIZED SLOW MOVING RAINS.

HURLEY
$$





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