Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 072213
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
612 PM EDT MON JUL 07 2014

...VALID 00Z TUE JUL 08 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 09 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 N SDA BRL 15 SSE BMI 15 ENE LWV 15 NE LOU 25 SW FFT
25 SSE FTK 40 SW EHR 10 SSW CPS 10 S SZL MHK 20 WSW BIE 10 N SDA.



...CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY REGION SHOULD
BECOME A PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.  STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THIS BOUNDARY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 0000 UTC TUE---STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD
ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.  BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST SOUTHWESTERLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF CELLS IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EASTERLY DIRECTION.  WIDESPREAD HEAVY TO ISOLATED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTHEASTERN NE---SOUTHERN IA---FAR NORTHEAST KS---NORTHERN MO
INTO SOUTHERN IL.  IN AREAS OF TRAINING--SHORT TERM PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF 1-2"+ POSSIBLE.

...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A COLD FRONT AS IT DROPS INTO THE OH VALLEY FROM THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS TODAY.  MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND PWS ON THE ORDER OF 1.75-2 INCHES AFFORDED BY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT---INTERACTING WITH
WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY AND SOME ENHANCED DIVERGENCE ALONG THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK---MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.  WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE BY THE EVENING HOURS---UPWIND PROPAGATION VECTORS
SUGGEST SLOW CELL MOVEMENT WITH SOME TRAINING EARLY ON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID-OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER LAKES REGION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE---INCLUDING THE HRW-ARW/NMMB AND THE NAM CONEST---ALL
FOCUS LOCALLY HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN PA INTO FAR WESTERN NY DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING
HOURS TODAY.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN...

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED AGAIN FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  THE LATEST
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE CLOSED UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  TO THE SOUTH OF THIS UPPER HIGH
CENTER--MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WITH STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
2-3 ABOVE THE MEAN WILL PERSISTING FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.  THESE HIGH PW VALUES AND THE PERSISTENT
UPPER SHEAR AXIS WITH EMBEDDED VORTS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDELY SCATTERED MONSOONAL
CONVECTION---WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.
  SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLES---FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

PEREIRA
$$





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