Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 031214
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
813 AM EDT FRI JUL 03 2015

...VALID 1213Z FRI JUL 03 2015 - 12Z SAT JUL 04 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
40 S GLH 25 E BQP 20 NNW DTN 10 WNW TKI 25 ESE SPS 20 SSW CHK
10 S FYV 10 NW MKL 35 W CSV 25 ENE TYS AVL 27A 35 NW CCO
25 ESE GTR 40 S GLH.



VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THIS
PERIOD..WITH A STRONG H5 RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE FROM THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A
DOWNSTREAM H5 TROF PERSISTING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S.  H5 S/WVS CONTINUE TO DROP INTO AND LIFT OUT OF THE
QUASI-STATIONARY H5 TROF..WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS
OCCURRING THRU PARTS OF THE MID MS..TN AND OH VALLEYS..MAINLY LATE
IN THE PERIOD.  ON THE SOUTH AND EAST SIDE OF THIS H5 TROF..A
QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/MID MS VALLEY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION.  STRONGER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
AND A HIGH PW AIRMASS WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF HEAVY
RAINS INTO SATURDAY MORNING..FROM AR AND NORTHERN LA EASTWARD INTO
THE TN VALLEY.  THIS HEAVIER RAIN/CONVECTION WILL BE ADDITIONALLY
ENHANCED BY A H5 S/WV NOW TOPPING THE H5 RIDGE THRU THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND WHICH WILL DROP RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.  WPC QPF
AGAIN STUCK CLOSE TO THE MODEL QPF SOLUTIONS WHICH WERE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE MID MS AND TN VALLEYS..KEYING IN ON WHERE THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE..AND INCLUDED THE ARW..NMMB..NSSL WRF AND EVEN TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT THE NAM AND GFS.  AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1-2+ INCHES EXPECTED FROM AR AND NORTHERN LA INTO THE TN
VALLEY..WITH SOME ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS OF 3+ INCHES POSSIBLE.
WENT FARTHER EAST INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TN AND NORTHERN GA WITH
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA MAINLY DUE TO LOW FF GUIDANCE VALUES IN THESE
AREAS.

TERRY/HAYES
$$




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