Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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967
FOUS30 KWBC 270055
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
854 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

...VALID 01Z WED APR 27 2016 - 12Z WED APR 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 SSW ICT 20 E SLN 30 S HDE 30 N AUH 15 NW IRK 25 N AIZ
30 NNW BPK 10 ENE MWT 20 SSW TXK 35 NW UTS HLR 10 N BWD
30 ESE SPS 20 S END 30 SSW ICT.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW HSP 10 NNE I16 25 N LOZ 20 E GLW 35 N BWG 40 NW SDF
15 WNW BAK 25 SSW LHQ 35 WNW SHD 20 SW HSP.


SOUTHERN PLAINS....MO/KS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINFALL HAS BEGUN AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM TX/OK INTO AR/MO IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
LOW LEVEL WINDS WHICH ARE DRAWING WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
THE REGION.  18Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT ANTICIPATED COOLING IN MID
LEVELS HAD ALREADY STARTED WITH CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A REGION
OF MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS.  THE INSTABILITY PRESENT ALSO INDICATES
THAT CONVECTION SHOULD BE TIED TO THE SURFACE AND ANY ATTENDANT
BOUNDARIES THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z.

THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THE
AREA FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHERN OK SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OF HEAVIER RAINFALL AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE.  AREA 88D VWD SHOWED 700 MB WINDS ALREADY IN EXCESS OF
60 KNOTS OVER TX AND THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED 50 KTS OF WIND
JUST ABOVE THE BL.  THE APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE OVER THIS AREA
AND SUPPORT THE INCREASED RAFL AMOUNTS AND INTENSITIES.

THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE EASTERN EXTEND OF
THE HEAVY RAIN SHOULD REACH WESTERN AR AND PARTS OF MO...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRING THE HEAVIEST RAIN DEEP INTO MO/AR.  EXTENDED THE
EASTERN EXTENT OF THE SLIGHT RISK A BIT EASTWARD IN DEFERENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY THAT CONVECTION MAY ACCELERATE.


TN VALLEY/OH VALLEY/WV
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
AN MCV FROM THE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER THIS MORNING WAS
MAKING ITS WAY EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN IL/IN THIS
EVENING...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENHANCING RAINFALL RATES
FOR A WHILE THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEY AND WV
ALONG AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL.  WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS SEEN
IN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY MOVING ROUGHLY PARALLEL WITH THE MEAN
FLOW...SOME TRAINING OF CELLS WITH RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.  THE THINKING IS THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL
SHOULD BE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN INDIANA INTO NORTHERN KY WHERE
MLCAPES WERE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 TO 2000 J PER KG AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE RUNNING 1.25 INCHES TO 1.50 INCHES
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z SOUNDINGS.

TO THE EAST OF THERE...THE SCATTERED CONVECTION MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF WV MAY ALSO RESULT IN A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR A
PERIOD THIS EVENING AS THE CELLS ENCOUNTER THE COMPLEX TERRAIN IN
THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING
SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG AS AREAS WEST OF THERE.  THE RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD ALSO BE DIMINISHING FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH
THE LOSS OF INSOLATION.


BANN
$$





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