Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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300
FOUS30 KWBC 150021
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
720 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

...VALID 01Z WED FEB 15 2017 - 12Z WED FEB 15 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 NNW UIL 15 SSE CWSP 25 E CLM 20 NNW PWT SHN HQM 25 NNW HQM
35 NNW UIL.


OLYMPIC PENINSULA...

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACRS THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA
TONIGHT IN WHAT SHOULD BE A LONG DURATION HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT
THAT SHOULD LAST INTO WED NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH DVLPG ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER IN ADVANCE OF A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL SYSTEM OFF THE
WEST COAST.   MODELS SHOW 85H SWLY WINDS INCREASING TO 65 KTS INTO
NW WASHINGTON OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AN AXIS OF PWS NEAR 1.25 INCHES
WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE BOTH VERY ANOMALOUS MSTR FLUX VALUES BUT ALSO
STG OROGRAPHIC FORCING INTO THE SRN TO WRN FACING TERRAIN.  TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACRS THE AREA COULD BE IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH RANGE
BY MORNING AS SUGGESTED BY A CONSENSUS OF HI RES GUIDANCE...WITH
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED BEYOND THIS PD.  THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED BEYOND 12Z...AND FOR THAT
REASON..HAVE ONLY INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK AT THIS TIME GIVEN
SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH WITH AMOUNTS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PD THAN THE HI RES GUIDANCE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE
LATEST MPD #0050 VALID UNTIL 1050Z.


SULLIVAN
$$





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