Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 141457
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
956 AM EST SAT JAN 14 2017

...VALID 15Z SAT JAN 14 2017 - 12Z SUN JAN 15 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SE MMCS 25 SE MMCS 25 SW MMCS 25 SSE DMN 15 E SVC 25 WSW TCS
45 ENE TCS 30 WNW SRR 30 SSW CQC 10 SW CQC 25 WSW LVS 15 ENE LVS
40 E LVS 30 ENE TCC 30 S CVN 20 W HOB 25 S CNM 25 S GDP
60 SW GDP 55 SE MMCS.


15Z UPDATE...
EXTENDED MARGINAL RISK WWD TOWARDS PARTS OF SW NM WEST OF THE RIO
GRANDE IN NM WITH EXPECTED IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENT PATRN DVLPG
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW FCST TO MOVE EWD ACRS NRN MEX LATER SAT/SAT
NIGHT.  INCREASING ELY UPSLOPE CONDS COMBINED WITH THE STG MID/UPR
FORCING COULD SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINS/EMBDD TSTMS DVLPG BACK TOWARD
SW NM AS SUGGESTED BY RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGEST LOCAL 1
TO 2+ INCH RAINS MAY OCCUR.   SULLIVAN      PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

...SOUTHERN/EASTERN NM...FAR SOUTHWEST TX...

THE UPSTREAM UPPER LOW AND NEGATIVELY TILTING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BE EJECTING TOWARD THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
UPPER JET DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH THE NOSE OF A 40 TO 50 KT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET LIFTING UP THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY FOSTER
SOME NORTH/SOUTH ORIENTED BANDS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NM AND POSSIBLY REACHING OUT INTO WESTERN
TX. A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE AGREES IN SHOWING A
POOLING OF 500+ J/KG OF MUCAPE ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX AND SOUTHEAST
NM WHICH WILL BE INTERCEPTED BY THE STRONG UPSTREAM ENERGY. THIS
CONVECTION MAY BE RATHER WELL-ORGANIZED AND IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WHICH MAY BE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES
WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. SOME RUNOFF PROBLEMS ARE POSSIBLE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEAVIER RAIN RATES.

ORRISON







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