Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 240153
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
852 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

...VALID 03Z SAT JAN 24 2015 - 00Z SUN JAN 25 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...EASTERN NC...

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES IS EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO A POSITION OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY
SATURDAY MORNING.  SOME LOCALLY HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS COULD
SPREAD NEWD UNDERNEATH A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT...AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCD COLD FRONT AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
PLAIN.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.75+ INCHES (2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORM) ALONG WITH 40 TO 50+ KT S-SW
850 MB JET AND WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG TAPPED
FROM THE EASTERN GOMEX AND THE ATLC GULF STREAM) WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT STRONGER EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HIGHER (POTENTIALLY
EXCESSIVE) RAINFALL RATES.  THESE RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
RUNOFF ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE
BANDS TRAIN OFF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM OFF THE SE COAST.

TERRY

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