Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
000
FOUS30 KWBC 141907
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2017

...VALID 21Z TUE FEB 14 2017 - 12Z WED FEB 15 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



1900 UTC UPDATE

THE MARGINAL RISK AREA HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM FAR EASTERN TX TOWARD
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
WARMING OF CLOUD TOPS WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN RADAR
REFLECTIVITY WITH THE WEAKENING SQUALL LINE PUSHING OUT OF EAST TX
INTO LA.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS PERIOD...1200 UTC
WED...MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE COMMA HEAD/DEFORMATION PRECIP
AREA FROM PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO LOWER MS VALLEY/TN
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BECOMING THE MORE DOMINANT
PRECIP AREA THAN THE TRAILING CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST.
 RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THIS COMMA HEAD AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
.25-.50"+ RANGE AND POSE LITTLE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT.
SUBSEQUENTLY---THE PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS LESS THAN 2 PERCENT.

ORAVEC
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.