Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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851
FOUS30 KWBC 270809
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI MAY 27 2016 - 12Z SAT MAY 28 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE HJH 25 NW BIE 10 E LNK 10 WNW RDK 30 ESE ICL 10 N CDJ
45 SE CDJ 10 ENE COU 25 SW SUS 10 NNW CGI 20 NW BYH 10 ENE PBF
15 SE ELD 40 SSW ELD 25 NW POE 35 SSE JAS 35 W BPT 10 SE IAH
15 SSW DWH 10 ENE 3T5 25 SW LHB 15 NE ACT 10 NW LNC 10 WNW 3T1
LBR 20 S RKR 25 NE JSV 10 W SLG 25 NNE GCM 35 W PPF 25 ENE AAO
20 NE HUT CNK 10 SE HJH.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE LFK 15 SSE CXO 11R 10 ENE LHB 35 NE LHB 15 NE JSO
20 ESE LFK.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE STJ 30 NNE LXT 25 SE LXT 30 SSE OJC 25 NE UKL 20 NNW UKL
10 WSW FOE 15 N TOP 20 NNE STJ.



...ERN KS/SE NEB/MO/AR/LA/ERN TX...

A RATHER LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS DEPICTED FOR DAY ONE AS ANOTHER
DAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACRS MUCH OF THE CNTL U.S. IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING UPR TROF LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE CNTL/SRN
ROCKIES.    VERY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
COMBINED WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ONCE
AHEAD LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM THE SRN/CNTL PLAINS AND
EXTENDING EAST OF THOSE AREAS.  WHILE THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
REASONABLY SIMILAR HANDLING OF THE UPR LOW/TROF...MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY/AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AND THIS INCLUDES MOST OF THE HI RES CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS AS WELL.  THIS LEADS TO RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF HEAVIER PCPN...THOUGH THERMAL/MSTR
CONSIDERATIONS WITH PWS WELL IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES ACRS THE SRN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WOULD GENLY SUPPORT CONTINUED THREAT
OF ORGANIZED HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS..FROM PARTS OF THE MID MS
VALLEY SWD THRU ARKANSAS/WRN LA AND ERN TX.  HOW REMNANT OUTFLOW
BNDRIES FROM OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY OVER SRN TX AS WELL AS CNTL KS
PLAY OUT THIS MRNG IS QUITE THE CHALLENGE AS AGAIN HI RES GUIDANCE
INCLUDING MULTIPLE HRRR RUNS HAVE NOT DONE PARTICULARLY WELL.
HOWEVER..MOST SUGGEST A SLIGHT EWD FOCUS FROM MOST OF THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE FOR SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY/TONIGHT ACRS THE SOUTH
AND THIS IDEA WAS GENLY FOLLOWED.   THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS
WILL BE FUELED BY 40 KT SLY 85H FLOW AND GREATER THAN 1.75 INCH
PROVIDING STG MSTR FLUX WELL AHEAD OF THE UPR TROF.  EXPECT SOME
SHORT TERM RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES THRU PARTS OF ERN KS/SE
NEB AND MO PRIMARILY FRI AFTN/EVE AS MAIN HEIGHT FALLS WORK EWD
AND HELP DESTABILIZE THE REGION AHEAD OF THE ASSOCD COLD
FRONT...WHILE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE PSBL FARTHER SOUTH ACRS THE
ARKLATEX IN PROXIMITY TO HIER MSTR AND DEEPER LAYERED SSWLY FLOW
THAT COULD PROMOTE TRAINING.  EARLIER HEAVY RAINS HAVE LOWERED FFG
VALUES SIGNIFICANTLY ACRS PARTS OF NE KS/MO AND ERN TX SO THAT IT
WON`T TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINS ACRS THOSE AREAS TO EXACERBATE
RUNOFF PROBLEMS.


SULLIVAN
$$





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