Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 222338
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
737 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE AUG 23 2016 - 12Z TUE AUG 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
90 SW MMCS 50 S DMN 30 WNW SVC 40 E IWA PHX 60 ENE BLH
65 ENE DAG 10 WSW DRA 80 SSW ELY 40 SSW PVU 25 NNW PUC
10 WSW EEO 35 ESE CCU 30 S LHX 55 NNE ROW 25 NE HOB 50 ENE HOB
50 SSW CDS CSM 20 W PNC 10 WSW CFV 15 S GMJ 30 ESE RKR
10 SSE HOT GWO 35 WSW MGM 25 ESE CEW 10 NNW PQL 15 W HDC
35 NE OCH 7F9 15 S DRT.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NE BIH 40 WNW MMH 10 NNW BLU 60 E RDD 45 ESE AAT 15 WSW WMC
70 W P68 25 NE BIH.


SOUTHWEST/GREAT BASIN/SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.
BROAD UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA--INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES.  THERE IS EVIDENCE IN RECENT
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NV, WITH VAD WIND PROFILES SHOWING A 700 HPA
CIRCULATION NEAR THE BORDER OF SOUTHERN NV AND NORTHWEST AZ.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS CYCLONIC FLOW WHICH WILL COMBINE
WITH PRECIPITABLE ANOMALIES OF 1-2 SIGMAS ABOVE THE NORM FOR LATE
AUGUST TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THESE
AREAS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE TOTALS ARE EXPECTED---WITH
ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ALONG WITH A CONTINUATION OF A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  LOCAL AMOUNTS IN THE
2-4" RANGE WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN.


SOUTHERN PLAINS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO OK OVERNIGHT, WITH THE CORRESPONDING AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY MOVING IN TANDEM.  ONGOING
DIURNALLY DRIVEN PULSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXISTS ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TX AT THIS TIME.  SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD NEAR AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN OK
OVERNIGHT WHICH COULD ATTEMPT TO ORGANIZE.  ANOTHER MAX AXIS MAY
EXTEND FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS INTO SOUTHWEST TX IN A
REGION OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHWEST UPPER
TROF.  ASCENT IS TRIGGERED AS UPPER DIVERGENCE MAXIMA DEVELOP
WITHIN THE DIFLUENT FLOW PATTERN.  MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS---WITH A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONGREGATING WITHIN A MOIST AIRMASS
OVER PORTIONS OF LA/MS/AL.  WITH CELL MERGERS EVIDENT, LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 2-4" RANGE WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE.  THE RISK AREA
IS SET AS MARGINAL AS LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS WEAK AND CELLS APPEAR TO
BE PULSE IN NATURE.  THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO
WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AROUND 03Z.

ROTH/ORAVEC
$$





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