Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 180104
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2014

...VALID 03Z FRI JUL 18 2014 - 00Z SAT JUL 19 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNE KBQX 15 NNE KRP BAZ 15 N GTU 20 ESE TRL 30 SSW RKR
25 NNW RUE 20 NW M97 25 SW GWO 30 SSE JAN 35 SSE BIX 30 N CYD
10 SSW KCMB 25 NNE KBQX.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WNW 2GL 25 ESE 7R4 15 NNE KVBS 20 NE GLS 15 SW SGR CLL GGG
20 W MLU 25 NNE HEZ 25 SE MCB NEW 15 WNW 2GL.


...LOWER MS VALLEY...

PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES COMBINED WITH MODEST CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY AND ASCENT FAVOR HIGH RAINFALL RATES WHERE CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS FORM...WHILE THE ANTICIPATED VEERING WIND PROFILES AND
DIURNAL INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORT A GRADUAL SLOWING OF
CELL MOTIONS OVERNIGHT IN A TRAINING FASHION.  OLD AND RECENT
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR MORE SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT
COMPARED TO NEARLY ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE...LIKELY A RESULT OF MORE
REALISTIC HANDLING OF PROPAGATION. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS
MODIFIED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO REMOVE THE WESTERN EDGE OVER
TEXAS THAT LIES WEST OF THE 700 MB TROUGH AXIS...WHILE THE
MODERATE RISK AREA WAS SHIFTED FARTHER SOUTH CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CONSENSUS OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.  FFG VALUES ARE
QUITE HIGH...BUT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF
2 TO 2.5 INCHES ALONG WITH TRAINING AND SLOWING OF CELL MOTIONS
OVERNIGHT...THE RISK AREAS ARE WARRANTED.

JAMES





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