Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 220619
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
118 AM EST THU JAN 22 2015

...VALID 06Z THU JAN 22 2015 - 12Z FRI JAN 23 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...GULF COAST...

A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED TO DVLP ACRS THE
SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO
POS TILTED UPR TROF EJECTING EWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES.  IN
RESPONSE TO THE APCHG HEIGHT FALLS...LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DVLP
OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEX AND RIDE ENEWD ALONG WARM FRONTAL BNDRY
TOWARD THE LA DELTA/SE MS REGION BY FRI MRNG.  THE BROAD SW FLOW
ALOFT AND DVLPG STG RT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS SHOULD SUPPORT
STG OVERRUNNING PATRN FROM ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME MDT TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AT
TIMES..DESPITE LACK OF INLAND INSTABILITY.  HAVE PLACED A FAIRLY
LARGE SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH PLUS RAINS ACRS ERN TX ALONG AND NORTH
OF 85H LOW TRACK WHERE COMBO OF 30 TO 40 KT S TO SELY 85H FLOW AND
PWS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES WILL SUPPORT STG MSTR FLUX AHEAD OF
THE LOW.  DURING THUR NIGHT...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A
BIT MORE UNIFORM OUT OF THE SW TOWARD SE LA AND THE FAR WRN FL
PANHANDLE WITH STG 85H CONFLUENT FLOW..PWS APCHG 1.75 INCHES AND
APCHG WARM FRONT SUPPORTING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY INTO THE CNTL
GULF COAST..ALL OF WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
BAND ELEMENTS DVLPG FROM SE LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE.  FOR MOST OF
THIS REGION...EXISTING HI FFG VALUES WOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT...THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
ISOLD THREAT ESPECIALLY OVER SE LA INTO THE FL PANHANDLE...GIVEN
CONVECTIVE POTNL DVLPG THUR NIGHT.

SULLIVAN
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.