Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 250700
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI JUL 25 2014 - 12Z SAT JUL 26 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE CNC 35 N CSQ 20 NNW FOD 15 WSW FRM 10 S RWF 15 SW FCM
15 WNW DEH CID 10 NE CNC.


...THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF ACTIVE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS
INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND EASTERN NEB EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL WHICH EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
OVER PARTS OF IA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD A BECOME MORE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DOWNPOURS
GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE AND BY THE FORMATION OF A
45 TO 55 KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH HELPS TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE INTO THE CONVECTION AND ENHANCE THE CONVERGENCE
AT LOW LEVELS.  WHILE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO PER HOUR
CAN BE EXPECTED...THE STEADY EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF THE ENTIRE
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD LIMIT THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF WHERE RAINFALL MEETS OR EXCEEDS FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

...SOUTHWESTERN U.S...

MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE AND WEST OF THE RIDGE CENTER WHICH GOT
DRAWN INTO PARTS OF UTAH/COLORADO ON THURSDAY WILL STIIL BE IN
PLAY TODAY AS THE FLOW PATTERN WILL NOT HAVE CHANGED MUCH AND A
PLUME OF HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE CONTINUE TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM AZ/NV INTO
SOUTHERN UT AND WESTERN CO.  00Z MODELS CONTINUED THE IDEA THAT
CAPE VALUES MAY NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH AND THE MID LEVEL ASCENT IS
NOT QUITE AS FOCUSED AS ON THU...WPC GRAPHICS HAD THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM AZ INTO SOUTHERN UT AND
WESTERN CO.  THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUED TO POINT TO THE
POSSIBILITY THAT ISOLATED CELLS COULD PRODUCE DOWNPOURS THAT LEAD
TO ISOLATED RUN OFF PROBLEMS IN THE COMPLEX TERRAIN... ESPECIALLY
OVER RECENT BURN SCARS AND NORMALL DRY WASHES.

BANN
$$





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