Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 091835
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 PM EDT WED JUL 09 2014

...VALID 18Z WED JUL 09 2014 - 00Z FRI JUL 11 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

SOUTHWESTERN U.S. INTO THE GREAT BASIN

THE RECENT MONSOONAL PATTERN IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE THIS PERIOD.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A
MOISTURE PLUME STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MEXICO INTO THE GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHWEST ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE GREAT BASIN
UPPER HIGH. PW ANOMALIES IN THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE IN THE 2-4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN RANGE.  WEAK IMPULSES REMAIN
EMBEDDED WITHIN AND ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN UPPER HIGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS.  CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH PLACEMENT OF
CONVECTIVE AREAS.  HOWEVER---THE RECENT PATTERN OF ISOLATED
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH
ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE WHERE CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE.
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS HIGH AT 3-4 INCHES IN 6 HOURS AND GLOBAL
MODEL HIGH RES WRF ARW/NMM QPF IS WELL BELOW THESE NUMBERS.

PETERSEN
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.