Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 191430
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1029 AM EDT WED APR 19 2017

...VALID 15Z WED APR 19 2017 - 12Z THU APR 20 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S BJJ 10 W MFD 30 ENE FDY 20 E TDZ 15 ESE CXPT 30 NNE CGF
10 SSE ERI 30 SSW JHW 25 W DUJ 20 WNW IDI 10 E PIT 15 NNW HLG
25 S BJJ.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ESE RZN 15 NNE PBH 15 E IMT 15 W CVX 30 SW APN 25 NNE MBS
10 NNW RNP 20 NNW BTL 10 SSE UGN 15 WNW SFY 10 WSW CID MIW
15 SSE CAV 10 NNE AXA 15 W MWM 10 ENE MML 15 W ILL 10 NNE 2P3
PNM 15 ESE RZN.


FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK ISSUED
OVERNIGHT.

THE 12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS IN
PLACE FROM THE MID/NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WERE GENERALLY RUNNING
BETWEEN 1 AND 1.25 INCHES AND H85 DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 11 DEGREES
C.  VEERING WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE AREA BUT SPEEDS WERE FAIRLY
STRONG AS WERE THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR VALUES SO MOST OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE FROM MN/IA INTO LOWER MI...ALTHOUGH SOME
SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED MAY RESULT GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST COULD RESULT IN A
LONGER DURATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IN ADDITION...THIS
AREA WAS IN A REGION OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE...SO
SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THAT AS WELL.

TO THE EAST...MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL RISK FROM NORTHEAST OHIO
INTO WESTERN PA.  CONCERN IS FOR A PERIOD OF TRAINING OF CELLS
THROUGH THIS EVENING ALONG A COLD FRONT SINKING THROUGH THE
EASTERN LAKES.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW AT THIS TIME IS EXPECTED TO BE
WESTERLY AND PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY---SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF CELLS-  IN AREA OF TRAINING...THERE MAY BE RUNOFF
ISSUES---ESPECIALLY IN URBANIZED REGIONS.

BANN

$$




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