Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 020048
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 PM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

...VALID 01Z THU JUL 02 2015 - 12Z THU JUL 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NNE RUE 15 ESE ASG 25 WSW JLN 30 SSW IXD 25 E STJ 25 NNW COU
10 SSE CPS 15 WSW OWB BWG 30 NE MQY 15 SE MQY 50 SW MQY
25 SW MKL 15 WNW AWM 25 NNE RUE.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSE OJC 20 NE LXT 35 ESE VIH 30 NW POF 20 NE UNO 10 NNE SGF
15 SSE OJC.


DAY 1...

...LOWER MO VALLEY/MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TO BE ACROSS THE LOWER
MO VALLEY INTO THE MID MS VALLEY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT STRETCHING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHEAST MO/SOUTHERNMOST IL...NEAR
AN AXIS OF 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. THE IR LOOP SHOWED
COOLING TOPS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MO...AND THE LATEST NAM SIMULATED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE COOLING IS THE BEGINNING OF
THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS...WHICH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED IN THE
2/02-06Z TIME FRAME ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MO. THE
DEVELOPING MCS THEN TRACKS SOUTHEAST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MO TOWARD
02/10Z.

22Z RAP SOUNDINGS ALONG THIS AXIS SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL
CONVECTION SHOULD BE SEVERE...WITH DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS.
HOWEVER...THE SOUNDINGS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE
COLUMN...AS WARM RAIN PROCESSES GRADUALLY TAKE OVER. DURING THE
TRANSITION...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD TURN TO THE
RIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCAL TRAINING AND AN INCREASING FLASH
FLOOD THREAT. THE LATEST HRRR IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE TAKING THE
DEVELOPING MCS SOUTHWEST...AFFECTING MAINLY SOUTHWEST MO AND EVEN
PORTIONS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH 02/10Z.
WHILE THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL IN THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TO BRING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL FURTHER
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME (CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE
AXES)...THE LATEST HRRR MAY TOO BE FAR SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN
ITS INSISTENT ON THIS TREND IN THE PAST FEW MODEL CYCLES...THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPECTED TO INCLUDE A PORTION OF EASTERN KS
IN DEFERENCE TO THIS SOLUTION.

ONE AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ACROSS A LARGE
CHUNK OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH AS A
RESULT OF THE MCS THAT AFFECTED THAT AREA WED MORNING. WHILE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE DEVELOPING MCS MAY TAKE ITS HEAVIEST RAINFALL
JUST SOUTHWEST OF THIS AREA...THE VERY LOW GUIDANCE REQUIRES THAT
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MO REMAIN IN A MODERATE RISK.

THE NEWLY DEVELOPED MCS TRACKS ACROSS MO INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
IL/NORTHEAST AR TOWARD 2/12Z. THE MCV THAT ACCOMPANIES THE THE MCS
SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ME INTO SOUTHERN IL AND WESTERN
KY/TN DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THU....ALONG A QUASI
STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN MO/SOUTHERNMOST IL/
SOUTHERNMOST IN/WESTERN KY/TN. INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE (IN THE
FORM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVER 2.00 INCHES...WHICH IS
ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN) ALONG THE BOUNDARY
INTERACT WITH THE MCV...WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. BECAUSE OF THE THREAT NO CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE.

HAYES
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.