Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 191217
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
817 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SAT SEP 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SW F05 20 ENE ABI PWG 15 ENE UTS 15 NNW BPT 15 SSE KVBS
30 E KRP 10 WSW MMNL 15 WNW MMPG 20 SE 6R6 70 SSE E38 40 SSW MRF
65 SE MMCS 15 E LRU TCS 55 S ABQ 20 NNW CQC 20 NW TCC 30 WNW AMA
35 SSE PPA 20 ESE CDS 50 SW F05.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 S MRF GDP 30 NW ROW 60 ENE 4CR 40 SSW TCC 35 NE CVN 40 E PVW
10 S SNK 35 NW E29 40 ENE 6R6 20 NNW 6R6 50 SE E38 25 S MRF.


SOUTHEAST NM AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH ODILE, ALONG WITH THE OTHER
ANOMALOUS PRECIPITABLE WATER AXIS SETTING SAIL WELL TO THE NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF T.S. POLO INTO WESTERN TX, WILL CONTINUE TO
OVERWASH A STALLED W-E STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. PERSISTENT S-SE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AHEAD
OF ODILE`S SLOW-MOVING CENTER OF CIRCULATION, THOUGH IT SHOULD
WEAKEN DURING THE DAY TODAY.  THE MCV/OLD 700 HPA CENTER OF ODILE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN TX BY THIS EVENING SHOULD CLEAR NM
OF ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT.  WEAK
ANTECEDENT UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WITHIN THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
GET A BOOST AHEAD OF THE ODILE-RELATED CIRCULATION AND WITH
INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TODAY, SATURATED SOILS BEDEVIL THE REGION, AND
CANNOT STAND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM ANY SORT OF
THUNDERSTORM, REGARDLESS OF ITS CONVECTIVE MODE.  THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH FORM WITHIN THE REGION COULD ORGANIZE AS 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
IS NEAR 25 KTS.  MAINTAINED THE MODERATE RISK ACROSS SOUTHEAST NM
AND WESTERN TX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
AND POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITHIN THE AREA TODAY. PER
THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE QPF GUIDANCE... LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
3-6+ INCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE OVERALL MOISTURE-RICH
ENVIRONMENT (WARM RAIN PROCESSES) WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.  SEE MPD #0390 FOR MORE
ON SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY NEAR THE NM/TX
BORDER.

ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TX, A SEA OF ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE, IN THE 2-2.25" RANGE, IS NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
MID-SEPTEMBER AND LIES CLOSER TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.  ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX, CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING
25 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ADVERTISED BY RECENT RAP GUIDANCE.
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY DAYTIME HEATING IN LEAGUE WITH THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE SUPPLY SHOULD GUARANTEE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX IS
ONGOING AND SHOULD EXHAUST LOCAL INSTABILITY FOR A TIME WHICH
COULD FORCE NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ITS
ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR CAPE-RELATED BOUNTY.  SEE MPD #0391 FOR MORE ON
SHORT TERM EXPECTATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN SOUTHEAST TX.


SOUTHEAST AZ
~~~~~~~~~~~~
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75" COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
TODAY SHOULD LEAD TO TYPICAL MONSOON-LIKE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT.  THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR (20 KTS OR LESS) AND MAGNITUDE
OF THE 700 HPA INFLOW (10 KTS) IMPLY SINGLE CELL/PULSE CONVECTION
TODAY OVER ANYTHING ORGANIZED.  CONSIDERING RECENT RAINS FROM
ODILE SATURATING THE AREA, FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO ADD A "SEE TEXT"
HIGHLIGHT TO THIS AREA.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE CELLS MERGE, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.


ROTH/HURLEY
$$





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