Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 280525
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
124 AM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

...VALID 12Z WED SEP 28 2016 - 12Z THU SEP 29 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SE MMMA 45 SW MMMA 30 ESE BKS NGP 15 W KMZG.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
27A 25 SW UZA 10 SE HBI 15 NNW BUY 15 W INT 10 SSW MWK 15 N MTV
15 ESE LYH 15 WSW PTB 10 NNE RWI 15 SSW MEB 20 N DNL 27A.


0100 UTC UPDATE

...CAROLINAS...

SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW ~20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
PARALLEL AND NEAR THE SAME MAGNITUDE OF THE 850-300 MB MEAN WIND.
THIS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (500-1000 J/KG)
ALONG A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT (PWS STILL 1.50-1.75" IN THE
OUTLOOK AREA) IS ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT GIVEN THE WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA.


...SOUTH TEXAS...

A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE
LOWER TX COAST TODAY. DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY (AT LEAST 500-1000
J/KG) AND DEEP MOISTURE (PWS 2-2.25 INCHES) WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LOWER TX
COAST...ALTHOUGH THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW (AROUND 10 KTS) AS
WELL AS BULK SHEAR (<20 KTS BETWEEN 0-6 KM) WILL KEEP THE ACTIVITY
FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED (I.E. A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING).
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICAL SETUP (INSTABILITY
ADVECTING IN OFF THE GOMEX)...EVEN WITH PULSE TYPE ACTIVITY EXPECT
AREAL-AVERAGE TOTALS OF 1-2" PER A MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS(HIGHEST
AROUND BROWNSVILLE-PORT MANSFIELD EAST TO SOUTH PADRE
ISLAND)...WHILE PER THE HIGH-RES CAMS EXPECT ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF
3-6" IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

HURLEY
$$





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