Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 300655
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
254 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...VALID 06Z TUE SEP 30 2014 - 12Z WED OCT 01 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN CLOSING OFF
THE STRONG NEGATIVE TILT H5 S/WV NOW LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO A CLOSED H5 LOW WHICH THEN SHIFTS NORTHWARD THRU THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.  AHEAD OF THIS H5
SYSTEM..40-50+ KTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO SHIFT
NORTHWARD THRU THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE
DAY..AIMED INTO A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL N-S TROF AXIS SETTING UP
VICINITY OF THE HIGH PLAINS.  IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE LIFT ENHANCED
BY STRONG MID LEVEL DYNAMICS/HEIGHT FALLS AND STILL FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH THE FOCUSING LOW
LEVEL TROF AXIS AND THE STRONG INFLOW OF PWS BETWEEN 1-1.25 INCHES
WILL SUPPORT A BAND OF HEAVY RAINS UP THRU THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS..ESPECIALLY FOR THE REMAINDER OF
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  SOME ADDITIONAL 1-2+ INCH
RAINS ARE LIKELY FROM PARTS OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NE UP THRU
WESTERN SD..SOUTHWESTERN ND AND EXTREME EASTERN WY..WHICH MAY
CAUSE SOME LOCAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS.


...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...

AN INITIALLY BROAD H85 LOW LEVEL JET/INFLOW AHEAD OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS H5 SYSTEM BECOMES A BIT MORE FOCUSED UP
THRU THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY LATER
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 40+ KTS OF
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY H85 FLOW BETWEEN 06-12Z.  MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY BE INCREASING ON THIS SOMEWHAT STRENGTHENING AND MORE
FOCUSED INFLOW..WITH PWS REACHING/POOLING ABOVE 1.50 INCHES LATE
IN THE PERIOD.  THIS INCREASING MOISTURE/LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WITH
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LIFT FROM GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND
IMPROVING UPPER DIVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY..AND MORE SPECIFICALLY FROM EASTERN KS INTO SOUTHEASTERN
NE..NORTHWESTERN MO AND MUCH OF WESTERN IA.  EXPECT AN AXIS OF 1-2
RAINS WITHIN THIS MORE FAVORED AREA..WITH ISOLATED 2-3 INCH TOTALS
POSSIBLE..ALL OF WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEF RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

TERRY
$$





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