Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 300139
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
938 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...VALID 03Z WED JUL 30 2014 - 00Z THU JUL 31 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NNE E33 CPW 30 NW CPW 15 NNE TEX 30 SSE GJT 10 W GJT
40 NNW GJT 35 E VEL 30 S BIT 20 ENE BIT 25 NW RWL 30 NNE RWL
40 ESE PAT 20 W SIB 20 E SIB 15 NE TOR 10 ENE SNY 40 SW IML
25 ESE GLD 50 N DDC 10 W ICT GMJ 30 SSW RKR ADM PPA 25 SSE DHT
40 WSW DHT 45 WSW TCC 15 ESE 4CR 20 WSW 4CR 45 W 4CR 10 E ABQ
35 NW SAF 15 NNE E33.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW SNY 30 NE AKO 15 E AKO 15 SE AKO 15 SSW AKO 20 WSW AKO
35 SE CYS 10 NE CYS 25 S BRX BRX 20 WSW TOR 25 SW BFF 15 WSW SNY.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE LBL 20 W AVK 20 NNE CQB 15 ENE SNL OKC 35 NW CSM
10 SSE PYX 20 ENE GUY 15 ENE LBL.


MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE..MAINLY TO REMOVE SOME
OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  ONGOING CONVECTION THRU MUCH
OF EASTERN CO BEING SUPPORTED BY THE WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM PUSHING INTO WESTERN CO AT THIS TIME AND A MODEST
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING IN HIGHER
MOISTURE/PWS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PUSH OUT AND WEAKEN INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATER THIS EVENING..AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS..BUT NOT BEFORE PRODUCING SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE CONVECTION IN
SOUTHEASTERN CO SHOULD RIDE ALONG THE QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS AND NORTH CENTRAL OK AND MAINTAIN
ITSELF..HELPED BY A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET INTO THIS
BOUNDARY.  THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE QPF
WITH THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...BUT A MAJORITY OF THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE HAVE PLACED QPF AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
ABOVEMENTIONED AREA...WITH SOME LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES...BASED ON
THE TRACK OF THE EXPECTANT MCS.  A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WAS USED
FOR THE QPF MAXIMUM HERE...AS THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY CAPPING
ISSUES THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND THE SIMULATED IMAGERY
FROM THE NAM SHOWED THE MCS THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEAST CO
TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OK AND NORTHERNMOST TX.
THUS..HAVE KEPT THE MODERATE THREAT AREA IN PLACE OVER PARTS OF OK
AND THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE TX PANHANDLE.

TERRY
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.