Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...VALID 01Z THU MAY 25 2017 - 12Z THU MAY 25 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE CKB 15 NE W99 15 SSE NYG 10 ENE JGG 15 S ASJ 15 NE GWW
15 SE TDF BUY 15 NNW RUQ 10 NNE MRN 25 N BKW 20 E PKB 15 ENE CKB.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
80 WSW FMY 50 NE RSW 35 ENE PBI 10 SE MIA NQX.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE MGY 25 ESE LUK 20 NNW FFT BAK MIE 30 WNW AOH 20 SE AOH
10 ENE MGY.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SW CHO 25 N DAN 10 SSW MWK 15 WSW HLX 10 ENE LWB 20 NNE HSP
15 SSW SHD 25 SW CHO.


01Z UPDATE...
OH VALLEY...MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS NEAR
VCNTY OF CLOSED LOW NEAR THE ERN IN/WRN OH AND NRN KY BORDER
REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS AREA OF WEAK ML CAPE NEAR
THE CNTR OF CIRC WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION MAINLY IN THE WEAK UPGLIDE/TROWAL AREA TO THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION.  DESPITE ONLY MODEST PWS..VERY LOCALIZED
RAIN RATES EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES IN AN HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED..AND
THOUGH RATES SHOULD DECREASE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING..SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR TWO ACRS
THIS AREA COULD LEAD TO ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES.

CNTL APPALACHIANS INTO SRN VA/NRN NC...
DYNAMICALLY FORCED LIFT NEAR INTERSECTION OF COLD AND WARM FRONTS
WITHIN A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME COULD LEAD TO POTNL
FOR HEAVY TO LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PD ACRS THIS REGION.  WEAK S/WV LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
SRN APLCNS WILL AID LIFT ACRS THIS AREA AS FRONTAL BNDRIES LIFT
SLOWLY NEWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLC DURING THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PD.  MDTLY STG MSTR FLOW WITH PWS OVER 1.5 INCHES
WILL CONTINUE TO FEED NWD WITH WARM FRONTAL BNDRY WHICH COMBINED
WITH MODEST SELY UPSLOPE FLOW COULD LEAD TO ENHANCED RAINFALL OVER
PORTIONS OF WRN VA/WV..WHILE BETTER INSTABILITY FARTHER TO THE
EAST COULD YIELD SOME SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN FALL AMOUNTS THERE AS
WELL.  A SLIGHT RISK WAS MAINTAINED OVER PARTS OF THE APPLCNS
REGION GIVEN RECENT HEAVIER RAINS THERE AND RESULTANT LOWER FFG
VALUES.  SEE MPD # 271 VALID UNTIL 04Z FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SRN FL...
A WELL DEFINED PREFRONTAL SQLN CONTINUES TO ADVANCE FAIRLY
RAPIDLY ACRS SRN FL WITH BLENDED TPWS INDICATED THE DEEPER MSTR
CONTINUES TO BE SHUNTED SWD AHEAD OF THAT ACTIVITY.  RECENT HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DVLP BEHIND THIS INITIAL
BAND BUT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AND MORE CONFINED TO SRN FL.
FOR THIS REASON..HAVE REDUCED MARGINAL RISK AREA TO CONFINE IT
MAINLY TO PORTIONS OF THE SRN THIRD OF FL.

SULLIVAN





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