Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 121820
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI DEC 12 2014 - 00Z SUN DEC 14 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW NRS 15 WNW NZY 15 WSW OKB 20 SSE SNA SLI LAX VNY
15 ENE 3A6 25 ESE PMD 30 SW DAG 30 S DAG 25 NNW PSP PSP
25 SSW TRM 20 NE CZZ 15 E CZZ 25 SSW CZZ 15 WSW NRS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N ONT 35 NNE RIV 35 NE RIV 30 NW PSP 20 NW PSP 20 WNW PSP
15 WSW PSP 25 SSW PSP 20 ENE RNM 20 N CZZ CZZ 10 WNW CZZ
15 ENE MMML 10 SE SEE RNM 25 ENE NFG 15 SE RIV 10 NE RIV
10 NNE RAL POC 10 ESE BUR 10 NNE BUR 15 S PMD 15 SSE PMD
25 N ONT.


SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WAS DECREASED IN
SIZE---CONCENTRATED THIS PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA IN THE
AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE INLAND
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  PW VALUES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT---WITH VALUES 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.  THESE HIGH PW VALUES WILL BE MOVING
INLAND INTO SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  THIS WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY OVER SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
RUNOFF ISSUES.  UNTIL THEN---HOWEVER---HEAVY RAINS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA---WITH SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1"+ POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
RUNOFF---MUDSLIDES AND DEBRIS FLOW ISSUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

ORAVEC
$$





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