000
FOUS30 KWBC 121840
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

...VALID 18Z WED JUN 12 2013 - 00Z FRI JUN 14 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 N VYS 20 SSE DBQ 20 ESE CCY 15 NNW CCY 10 SE AUM FKA
25 NNW OVS 10 S RYV 35 NW LWA 10 W JXN 20 SSE CWAJ 15 SSW JHW
25 WSW ELM 10 NNW MSV POU 10 NW DXR 10 NW BDR 15 N HWV HWV
20 S ISP 25 SSE JFK NEL PNE 20 SSE RDG 15 WNW THV 15 NW HGR
10 E CBE 15 SW CBE 25 N W99 25 NNE EKN CKB 20 ENE PKB 25 ESE LHQ
25 N DAY 30 WNW GUS 15 N VYS.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE VPZ 10 WNW LOT DKB 10 ESE RFD 25 NNE DKB 15 SE UGN BEH
10 W HAI 15 N DFI 20 SE TDZ 10 NW BVI 20 NE IDI UNV 15 NE SEG
20 SW AVP MPO 15 WNW FWN 10 NE FWN 15 S SWF HPN 15 ENE LGA
10 SW JFK 20 ENE TTN RDG 20 WNW CXY 20 S JST 15 SE AFJ
25 SSE PHD 15 WNW 4I3 25 ESE FWA 20 SE VPZ.


A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
NATION THIS PERIOD..AS COOL SEASON DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH
SUMMERTIME MOISTURE AND THERMODYNAMICS TO PRODUCE LONG LIVED AND
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH AN AXIS OF HEAVY TO EVEN LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINS.  IN GENERAL..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING TO DIG THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE EASTERN SD
H5 S/WV THRU THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH
TIME.  DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ACCOMPANYING STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET..AT OR ABOVE 50 KTS..ALONG WITH PWS POOLING TO AT OR
ABOVE 2 INCHES VICINITY OF THE FOCUSING SURFACE BOUNDARY..WILL
FUEL THE VERY STRONG STORMS..WITH SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES/AMOUNTS GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND AT LEAST A
CHANCE FOR BRIEF CELL TRAINING EARLY IN THE PERIOD BACK OVER THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER DID..I STAYED ON
THE SOUTHERN END OR EVEN A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MODEL QPF
GUIDANCE..AS THE POTENTIAL COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT AND RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD SHIFT THE "EFFECTIVE" FRONT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST SYNOPTIC BNDRY.  EXPECT AN AXIS OF 1 TO 3 INCH AREAL
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW TRACK WITH
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AND SOME FLOODING
PROBLEMS ALSO PROBABLE WITHIN THE THREAT AREA.

TERRY
$$