Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 220114
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
913 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE JUL 22 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 23 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 NE DTL 25 N FAR 10 W CKN 10 E HCO 20 W CWSU 10 S FGN
40 SSW CYHD 45 NW CWDV 50 WNW CXCA 40 SSE CXCA 45 SE CWEC
20 SE GNA 30 E BFW TWM 25 SE GPZ 20 NW PWC 10 WNW PKD 10 NE DTL.


...NORTHERN MN...

THE AREA ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
MCS MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM NORTH DAKOTA.  A POOL OF PRECIPITABLE
WATER NEAR 2.25 INCHES IN THE ECMWF FCST AND SFC DEWPOINTS FROM
THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S PROVIDE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FOR THE
COMPLEX.  STRONG 850-700 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE WILL
COMBINE WITH UNSTABLE AIR NEAR THE FRONT TO DRIVE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MN TONIGHT AS A CLOSED 850 MB LOW MOVES
EAST. 1 TO 2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR ARE EXPECTED...WITH
SOME 2 TO 3+ INCH TOTALS.  THESE RAINFALL RATES/TOTALS COULD CAUSE
SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA DESPITE STEADY
FORWARD PROPAGATION.  THERE HAS BEEN INDICATORS OF DEVELOPMENT
FURTHER EAST ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE THAT RESULTS IN REPEAT CELLS.
A FEW HIGH RESOLUTION RUNS HAVE SHOWN POTENTIAL FOR 3-4 INCH RAINS
WHERE TRAINING OCCURS...WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE 2.5 TO 4 INCHES
LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISK INDICATED.

THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO BE SPLIT ON THE IDEA OF
WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL SET UP...WITH THE 12Z
UKMET APPEARING TO BE FURTHER NORTH THAN WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN
HAS BEEN SET UP NEAR THE FRONT...SO THE UKMET WAS GIVEN THE LEAST
WEIGHTING.   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DRY AIR ALOFT ADVECTING
ACROSS SD SO THERE IS LESS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE
TRAJECTORY OF DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST SD INTO SOUTHERN MN.


PETERSEN

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