Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 200104
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
903 PM EDT THU MAY 19 2016

...VALID 01Z FRI MAY 20 2016 - 12Z FRI MAY 20 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SE PNS 30 SSE PQL KMIS 30 ESE KDLP 25 NNE GSM 20 NE SRN
15 N KCMB 25 S ACP 20 NNW BTR 20 N MOB 20 NW CEW VPS 20 SE PNS.


CENTRAL GULF COAST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A PROGRESSIVE MCS IS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST LA.  FORWARD MOTION CONTINUES TO BE 25 KTS TO
THE EAST, WHICH COULD ALLOW THIS LINE, AND WHATEVER WARM ADVECTION
CONVECTION FORMS AHEAD OF IT, TO REACH THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE BY
12Z.  SHORT PERIODS OF TRAINING ARE POSSIBLE SO LONG AS CONVECTION
CAN FORM OR MOVE AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE BOW.  DESPITE THE HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES, FLASH FLOODING/EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.
EXTENDED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN AL TO ACCOMMODATE THE
CONVECTION`S FORWARD PROGRESSION.


SOUTHEAST
~~~~~~~~~
DAYTIME CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WANE ACROSS PORTIONS OF GA AND
NORTHEAST FL.  STILL, SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL
GA WHICH ARE LEADING TO HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5".  THIS
CONVECTION COULD PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 04Z PER THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS THE 12Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING THE THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE.
DOWNGRADED THE FLASH FLOOD RISK TO A SEE TEXT SINCE COVERAGE IS
LESSENING.

ROTH
$$




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