Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010615
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
114 AM EST SUN MAR 01 2015

...VALID 06Z SUN MAR 01 2015 - 12Z MON MAR 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE IGM 35 E IGM 45 WSW 40G 30 SSW 40G 25 WSW FLG 25 S FLG
40 ESE PRC 35 ESE PRC 30 SSE PRC 25 SSW PRC 45 WSW PRC
70 ESE EED 55 ESE EED 45 ESE EED 25 SSE IGM.


WRN AZ...

HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR AREAS ACRS
WCNTL AZ FOR THE POTENIAL FOR LONGER DURATION RAINS TO SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY HEAVIER LATER SUN AND SUN NIGHT. THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL SINK ONLY
SLOWLY SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA DAY
1.  AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES WILL PERSIST DAY 1 ON THE
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THIS CLOSED LOW FROM THE NORTHERN BAJA/FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA---INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  STG 85H-7H SWLY FLOW TO THE EAST SIDE
OF THE UPR LOW ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING JET DYNAMICS TO THE EAST
OF THE UPR LOW WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIP TOTALS IN THE FAVORED AREAS NEAR THE WRN MOGOLLON RIM AREA
AND POINTS SOUTH WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 4 INCHES IN
THE MORE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.  THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE STEEPER
TERRAIN WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME RAPID RUNOFF ISSUES ACRS THE
OUTLOOK AREA.

SULLIVAN

$$





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