Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 020100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
759 PM EST MON FEB 01 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE FEB 02 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 02 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...OKLAHOMA...

INTRODUCED A DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BASED
PRIMARILY ON CONSISTENCY IN THE HRRR RUNS. IT IS AN UNLIKELY
SCENARIO FOR EXCEEDANCE OF FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE...BUT THE HRRR
DOES INSIST THAT CONVECTION WILL BLOSSOM INTO A SMALL MCS WITH
SOME SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TRAINING OF RAINFALL ALONG THE INFLOW
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THE 20,21, AND 22Z HRRR WERE REMARKABLY
SIMILAR IN PLACEMENT OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH EVENT
TOTALS ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...FROM NEAR OKLAHOMA CITY TO STILLWATER
TO BARTLESVILLE WITHIN AN AREA MARKED BY THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE. INSTABILITY PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS WAS SCANT...BUT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ABOVE 500
J/KG OWING TO CONTINUED STEEPENING OF LAPSE RATES THROUGH DEEP
ASCENT AND ACCELERATION OF LOW LEVEL INFLOW AS LARGER SCALE
CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. THE RAP FORECASTS
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO RISE ABOVE 1 INCH OVERNIGHT...AND 850 MB
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE QUITE STRONG...UP TO 4.5 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN. THE HRRR BOOSTS HOURLY RAIN RATES UP
ABOVE 1 INCH IN SPOTS...ENTIRELY WITHIN REASON GIVEN EXPECTED
TRAINING...ALTHOUGH THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL
TEND TO REDUCE THE ODDS OF ANY MORE EXCEPTIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS
OCCURRING DURING THIS EVENT.

BURKE
$$




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