Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 180002
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
802 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2016

...VALID 01Z MON JUL 18 2016 - 12Z MON JUL 18 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE LWD 10 N AFK 25 NNW FET 20 SW FOD 15 W MXO 25 SSW VPZ
15 SSW ILN 25 WNW SDF 20 E HNB 10 NNW HSB 10 ESE BLV 25 SW UIN
35 NNE CDJ 25 SSE LWD.


IOWA/NORTHERN MO/ILLINOIS/INDIANA
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING WHERE AND HOW MUCH CONVECTIVE
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.  SHORT TERM RADAR TRENDS SHOW
INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER WESTERN IA.  A GREAT
DEAL OF INSTABILITY RESIDES IN MO/SOUTHERN IL, WITH MLCAPES IN THE
4000-5000 J/KG RANGE.  AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
HAS MOVED INTO THIS REGION AND CONVERGENT INFLOW OF ~30 KTS IS
FOCUSED INTO THE AREA.  ACTIVITY MAY BE AWAITING THE ARRIVAL OF A
WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SD.  THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION TRAVERSING THE SAME AREA, WITH
BRIEF PERIODS OF CELL TRAINING POSSIBLE.  ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ~15 KTS PER THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE VECTORS.  INTENSE RAINFALL RATES, TO THE
TUNE OF 2.5" AN HOUR, ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.  ADJUSTMENTS FOR
THIS UPDATE WERE MADE TO FRESHEN THE WORDING AND ACCOUNT FOR
SLIGHT SHIFTS IN THE RADAR TRENDS.

ROTH/BANN
$$





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