Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 220821
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
420 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

...VALID 12Z MON AUG 22 2016 - 12Z TUE AUG 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 SE DUG 40 N DUG 50 E IWA 25 NNE SDL 50 ESE EED 35 ESE EED
40 S HND VGT 50 WNW CDC 20 NE MLF 40 SW PUC 30 N 4HV 15 SSW 4HV
50 NE PGA 60 SW 4BL 20 N 4BL 40 E CNY 20 SSE RIL 10 SSW ASE
25 N MYP 20 WNW VTP 30 ENE SKX 45 ESE CQC ROW 10 SE CNM
20 NE INK 40 NNW BPG 30 N SNK 55 NNE SNK 45 SSW F05 25 WSW SPS
15 W 1F0 10 SE AQR 10 NNE DEQ 20 S M89 20 SE ELD 30 NNW IER
10 E OCH 25 ESE TPL 25 N SAT 15 WSW COT 30 NE MMMV.


SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK PERIOD FROM THE
SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE MARGINAL RISK AREA COVERS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
ROCKIES.  BROAD UPPER TROFFING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THIS PERIOD
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA--INTO THE SOUTHWEST---SOUTHERN GREAT
BASIN---SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES. UPPER DIFFLUENCE MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES FORECAST TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS.  AREAL AVERAGE LIGHT TO MODERATE
TOTALS EXPECTED---WITH ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS POSSIBLE---ALONG WITH
A CONTINUATION OF A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.


THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS PERIOD---WITH THE
CORRESPONDING AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE BOUNDARY ALSO PRESSING NORTHEASTWARD. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
INCREASE THIS PERIOD IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS--ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO
DETAILS.  THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A MAX PRECIP
AREA IN THE VICINITY OF THE ARLATEX WHERE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INTO
THE BOUNDARY MAY MAXIMIZE.  ANOTHER MAX AXIS MAY EXTEND FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF THIS INTO SOUTHWEST TX IN A REGION OF UPPER
DIFFLUENCE TO THE EAST OF THE  SOUTHWEST UPPER TROF.  MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE REGIONS---WITH A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

ORAVEC
$$




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