Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 100616
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 AM EDT THU JUL 10 2014

...VALID 06Z THU JUL 10 2014 - 12Z FRI JUL 11 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL KANSAS...

DEVELOPING MCS ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS IS BEING FUELED BY AN INCREASING NOCTURNAL LLJ
(30-40 KTS CURRENTLY PER THE LATEST VWPS) ALONG A SECONDARY MAXIMA
OF PW (1.5+ INCHES). COMPARATIVELY SPEAKING...DEEP LAYER
INSTABILITY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT IS NOT AS ROBUST (MUCAPES BTWN
1000-2000 J/KG). FURTHERMORE...GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT (DIRECTIONAL SHEAR) AND NORTHWESTERLY 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF
40-50 KTS...THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS CLEARLY EXHIBITED ENHANCED
FORWARD (DOWNWIND) PROPAGATION. NEVERTHELESS...THE CONCERN
OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOPING UPSTREAM IN THE
COOL SECTOR NORTH OF A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHICH IS BEING
ENHANCED BY THE OUTFLOWS...AS THE STRENGTHENING SRLY LLVL INFLOW
OPPOSES THE NORTHERLY CORFIDI VECTORS. SOME OF THE LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE 4KM NAM
CONEST... SUGGEST ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITHIN A FEW HOURS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED RUNOFF ISSUES
AND FLASH FLOODING. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE
LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION (FFGMPD #183) AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/METWATCH/METWATCH_MPD.PHP.

HURLEY
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