Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26
000
FOUS30 KWBC 140016
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
716 PM EST MON FEB 13 2017

...VALID 01Z TUE FEB 14 2017 - 12Z TUE FEB 14 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 ESE 6R6 10 NW MDD 15 SSE PVW 50 NNE CDS 30 ENE HBR
25 WSW 1F0 20 WNW GDJ 15 E ERV 15 SSE UVA 15 SSE DLF 35 ESE 6R6.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW ECU 20 NE E29 45 S ABI 20 N BWD 15 SE 7F9 30 NNE 6R9
25 SSW ERV 15 NNW UVA 10 SW ECU.


01 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK FOR THE DAY 1 TIME PERIOD.

SCHICHTEL

...TEXAS...

THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW MIGRATING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL ULTIMATELY REACH WEST TX DURING THE LATER
HALF OF THE PERIOD (MON NIGHT). ENHANCED DEEP-LAYER FORCING PER
THE DIFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE NORTH AND EAST
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVELY
AND OROGRAPHICALLY-AIDED SHOWERS ACROSS NM AND EASTERN AZ... WITH
EMPHASIS ON THE SOUTHEAST MOGOLLON RIM AND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS WHERE WHERE TERRAIN WILL INTERCEPT THE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW. FORCING WILL INCREASE OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS RETURNING
NORTHWARD...AND UPGLIDE NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTRIBUTING
TO ASCENT. WITH RESPECT TO QPF...THE MODELS (BOTH GLOBAL AND
HIGH-RES CAMS) NOTED MULTIPLE MAXIMA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
TX. MOREOVER...THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD W-E WITH THE 1.0+
INCH AREAL-AVERAGE AMOUNTS...PARTICULARLY WITH THE HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE (GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE GLOBALS).

GIVEN THE MODEST AVAILABLE CAPE INTO CENTRAL TX/HILL COUNTRY
(ELEVATED CAPES 500-1000 J/KG) COINCIDENT WITH PWS CLIMBING TO
1.25+ INCHES (AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)...WPC
LEANED A BIT MORE TOWARD THE WRF-ARW AND HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE (HREF)
IN TERMS OF FOCUSING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS (1.5-3.0 INCHES) FARTHER
SOUTH WHERE BETTER DEEP-LAYER INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE.
MOREOVER...GIVEN THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR AND FORWARD
(EASTWARD) PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...ALONG WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR AVAILABILITY ALOFT (700-500 MB)...EXPECT
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES TO BE RATHER
PROGRESSIVE. WPC WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE WITH JUST A SMALL "SLIGHT
RISK" AREA IN THE DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TX HILL COUNTRY...SIMILAR TO THE OUTLOOK NOTED ON
THE DAY 2 ERO FROM SUNDAY...WHERE PER MULTIPLE HIGH-RES CAMS
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-4" ARE ANTICIPATED.

ORAVEC/HURLEY
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.