Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 182047
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
447 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2016

...VALID 21Z MON JUL 18 2016 - 12Z TUE JUL 19 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 ENE LWD 20 NNE STJ 20 WNW FET 35 ENE YKN 15 NW FOD
15 ENE LWD.


MAINE
~~~~~
A SEE TEXT IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR MAINE INTO THIS EVENING FOR
POCKETS OF ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS PRODUCING LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL, PERHAPS UP TO 2-3", WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED AND
URBAN ISSUES.


TENNESSEE/KENTUCKY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
CONVECTION ACROSS IL AND KY APPEARS TO BE ON THE DOWNTURN AT THIS
TIME.  HOWEVER, SOME CONVERGENCE IS SEEN IN THE 850 HPA WIND FIELD
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY/TN INTO
THE APPALACHIANS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND WESTERN NC INTO THIS EVENING,
THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN SCATTERED.  PLACES
FARTHER EAST ACROSS WESTERN NC HAVE FALLEN INTO SEVERE DROUGHT, SO
ANY RAINS THERE SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL.


IOWA
~~~~
RECENT RAINS HAVE LOWERED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO ESSENTIALLY ZERO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN IA.  SINCE WE HAVE QPF FORECAST IN THIS
REGION, THE SLIGHT RISK IS BEING MAINTAINED.  TONIGHT, MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES INTO THE STALLED OUT BOUNDARY WHILE CONVECTION
EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS NE.
EXPECT A REGENERATION OF ELEVATED CONVECTION BETWEEN 06-12Z, IN
LINE WITH THE MOST RECENT MESOSCALE/CAM GUIDANCE.  FORWARD
PROPAGATION IS EXPECTED TO BE ROUGHLY 20 KTS -- SHORT PERIODS OF
CELL TRAINING/CELL MERGERS APPEAR TO BE THE BEST BET FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL.  WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 1.75",
HOURLY RAIN RATES IN THE 2-2.5" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE.  CURRENTLY
EXPECT THE FOCUS TO BE FROM NEAR THE NE/SD BORDER INTO WESTERN IA.
 WE DO EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FORECAST TO BE A
BIT LESS TONIGHT INTO THE BOUNDARY WHEN COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING...AND THE CONVERGENCE AXIS MAY BE A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THIS MORNING.  THESE ARE BOTH SIGNS THAT TONIGHT`S CONVECTION
MAY NOT BE QUITE AS INTENSE AS WHAT WE SAW THIS MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IA.

ROTH/MUSHER/CHENARD
$$





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