Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 150830
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT FRI SEP 15 2017

...VALID 12Z FRI SEP 15 2017 - 12Z SAT SEP 16 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 WNW 8D3 10 SE K2D5 20 N K2D5 35 NE KBAC 20 NW CWTX
10 NNE CWCH 35 N CKC 10 N CKC 10 WNW TWM COQ 25 NW JMR OVL RWF
10 WSW SHL 20 WNW SUX 30 NNE OFK 25 WSW FSD 20 NNE BKX
10 WNW 8D3.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 SE FIR 25 NE VEL VEL 55 W VEL 30 E PVU 40 E U24 30 SSW PVU
20 N PVU 20 E SLC 15 SSW EVW 50 SE U78 25 SW BPI 45 SSW BPI
25 ENE FIR 45 SE FIR.


WPC CONTINUITY BLENDED WELL WITH THE REASONABLY CLUSTERED 00 UTC
ARW/NNMB FOR INCREASED MESOSCALE DETAIL.


...CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...

THERE IS STILL GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
GREAT BASIN/NRN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH AND GOOD DEPICTION OF THE
WIDESPREAD LEAD MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS THESE
AREAS. THE DEVELOPING AREA OF PRECIP STRETCHING FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS AREA AND SWWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE DEFINED WITH TIME AS THE UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AND
HELPS SPREAD PRECIPITATION ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER
MS VALLEY AS UPWARDS TO 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INTERACTS WITH WAVY FRONTAL ZONE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS PERIOD ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE GOOD GUIDANCE SOLUTION CLUSTERING AND PATTERN
FIT...BUT FFG VALUES ARE HIGH AND MUCH OF THE PREVIOUS AREA DOES
NOT SEEM TO HAVE THOSE ORDER OF RAIN RATES. ACCORDINGLY...ADJUSTED
WPC CONTINUITY TO OFFER A SMALLER SET OF MARGINAL AREAS TO FOCUS
LIMITED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO AREAS OF HIGHEST MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SCHICHTEL



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