Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 190100
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
859 PM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

...VALID 01Z MON JUN 19 2017 - 12Z MON JUN 19 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE TYS 45 WNW MXF 35 NNW PIB 15 WNW MLU 20 WSW TYR 25 NE SEP
20 NNE RPH 15 NNW AQR 30 SSW FLP 15 SE CIR 10 ESE PAH 25 SSE BAK
10 N ERI CXKE CWVZ 10 E CWFQ 20 NNW RUT 50 ENE BGM 10 NNW W22
10 SE TYS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE JKL 25 NW CHA 15 S TCL 30 NNW NMM 15 NW MSL 10 NNW HOP
30 S CVG YNG 15 ENE CWGH 10 W PLB 30 NW GFL FIG 25 ENE JKL.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 WNW ELD 20 WSW OSA 10 SSE TKI 10 SE GYI 35 WNW DEQ 30 S MWT
35 WNW ELD.


1500 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO CONNECT THE TWO SLIGHT RISK AREAS TO COVER CURRENT ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO ARKANSAS AND POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS ALSO BUMPED BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS
CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTHWEST OH TO COVER SOME OF THE MODEL SPREAD FOR
POTENTIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS.

THE MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS EXTENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE EAST
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO COVER
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON THAT MAY PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE LOWER FFG VALUES FROM
WESTERN NC INTO NORTHWEST VA.

ORAVEC

INITIAL DISCUSSION


...GT LAKES/NE SWWD THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS..LOWER MS
VALLEY..AND SRN PLAINS...

...SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINS EXPECTED FROM WRN NY SWWD
THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE ERN OH VALLEY..THE TN VALLEY..AND NORTHER
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY.   A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINS IS ALSO EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK...

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
ACRS THE NRN/MID MS VALLEY AS STG JET HELPS CARVE OUT AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF ACRS THIS REGION THROUGH THE GT LAKES
THROUGH MON MORNING.  BACKING MID/UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROF
WILL ALLOW DEEP MSTR WITH PWS APCHG 2 INCHES TO STREAM NEWD AHEAD
OF ASSOCD COLD FRONT THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EWD INTO NY STATE
SUN NIGHT WHILE TRAILING PORTION SLOWS ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE
STRONGER WLYS NEAR THE RED RIVER ACRS THE SRN PLAINS.  THE BACKING
FLOW AND AMPLIFYING RT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ASSOCD UPPER JET EAST
OF THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY ENHANCE BROADER SCALE ASCENT ALONG THE
FRONT FROM THE TN/OH VALLEY NEWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND..WHICH ALONG WITH EXPECTED DECENT WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MDT TO HEAVY RAIN RATES ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY SLOWLY EWD SUN/SUN NIGHT..ESPECIALLY
DURING PEAK HEATING.  WITH THE MID/UPR FLOW BECOMING MORE ALIGNED
WITH THE FRONT/PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...POTNL WILL EXIST FOR SOME
TRAINING ELEMENTS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING IN SPOTS.
HOURLY RAIN RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WITH SOME ISOLD RAIN
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL BE PSBL.  WITH EVEN HIER
INSTABILITIES AND DEEPER MSTR FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AHEAD OF POTNL MCVS TRACKING
ESEWD FROM SAT NIGHT CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF ERN KS/MO..EXPECT
STORMS TO REFIRE AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES ON SUN LEADING TO MDT TO
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.  SOME OF THE HIER CAM GUIDANCE SHOW LOCAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHER
MS/TN..THOUGH THERE IS NOT SUFFICIENT CLUSTERING OF MODELS TO
SUPPORT MORE THAN A SLIGHT RISK OVER THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
FARTHER WEST ALONG THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT...HEAVIER
CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO REFIRE ALONG THE BNDRY LATE
SUN/SUN NIGHT AS SUFFICIENT HEATING/INSTABILITY AND POOLING OF
MSTR HELPS BREAK CAP ACRS PORTIONS OF NE TX/SE OK.  PATRN HERE IS
SUGGESTIVE OF POTNL BACK BUILDING OF CONVECTION SUN NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONT ALONG WITH PSBL MCS DVLPMENT AS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
FORM UNDER ANTICYCLONIC EWD EXTENSION OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS.  WHILE
THERE IS SOME DECENT SPREAD IN THE 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE AS TO THE
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINS ACRS NE TX/SE OK...ALL SHOW A STG
SIGNAL FOR POTNL HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACRS THAT AREA SUN NIGHT WITH
LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES.

SULLIVAN

$$





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