Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 181840
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
239 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2014

...VALID 18Z FRI JUL 18 2014 - 00Z SUN JUL 20 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 W BPT 25 SW DRI 40 E ACP 10 SE MCB 10 W HBG 30 ENE PIB
55 SE MEI 50 W GZH 20 SSW GZH 25 ENE CEW 20 NNE ECP 20 W AAF
75 SW PAM 35 W KIKT KSPR 20 NNW KEHC 25 ESE KGVX 10 SE KBQX KBQX
20 W GLS 35 W BPT.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW P92 20 NNE SRN 20 SE KVNP 15 W KVNP 25 NNW KVNP
25 ENE ARA 15 N MSY MSY 20 WNW 2GL 15 SSW P92.


...GULF COAST...

CONTINUE TO SHIFT EXCESSIVE THREAT SLIGHTLY SWD ACRS THIS REGION
WITH EXPECTED CONTINUED VEERING OF 85H FLOW TO A MORE WLY
DIRECTION OVERNIGHT ACRS THE GULF COAST REGION.  THE COMBINATION
OF CONTINUED VERY HIGH PWS..AOA 2 INCHES...AND CONFLUENT 85H WLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT POTNL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING BANDS OF CONVECTION
ACRS PARTICULARY FROM SE LA INTO SRN MS AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
HI RES MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO PERFORM BETTER ACRS THIS AREA THAN
GLOBAL MODELS WHICH REMAIN FARTHER NORTH WITH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN.  EXPECT SOME SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVERNIGHT ACRS THIS REGION.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAINS THIS PD MAY TEND TO SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER FRI
NIGHT..ESPECIALLY IF LARGE RAIN COOLED AREA OVER THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND WEAK MESO LOW OVER MS PROVIDES ENOUGH MOMENTUM TO SHIFT
LEADING EDGE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BNDRY  FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM...EXPECTED DECENT CHANCE OF
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS TO IMPACT PARTS OF THE CNTL GULF COAST
WITH POTNL FOR HEAVIER RAINS EXPANDING EWD TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE
FRI NIGHT AND SAT..SUPPORTING A SLIGHT RISK OVER THAT AREA.

FARTHER N ACRS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...SOME POCKETS OF VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY MAY EXIST AHEAD OF UPR TROF TO SUPPORT SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS..THOUGH IN GENL A PERIOD OF LONGER
DURATION MDTLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED WITH HEAVIEST FROM NRN AL
INTO PARTS OF ERN KY/SRN WV. ANY RUNOFF PROBLEMS HERE SHOULD BE
RATHER ISOLD.

SULLIVAN





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