Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 151341
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
941 AM EDT MON SEP 15 2014

...VALID 15Z MON SEP 15 2014 - 12Z TUE SEP 16 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW ALX 30 NW ALX 15 SW ANB 20 NE ANB 35 NW CCO 20 WSW FTY
ATL 25 ESE ATL 20 NW MLJ MLJ 10 NW DBN 15 W DBN OPN 15 NE CSG
10 N AUO 10 SW ALX.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE SSI 20 ESE AYS AMG 15 NNW LHW 20 SE JYL 25 NNE NBC
15 ESE CHS 40 S CHS 45 SE SVN 10 SE SSI.


PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

SEE ABSOLUTELY NO REASON TO CHANGE THE TWO AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US FOR THIS AFTN AND EVENING... AS STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
AND ANOMALOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS PRESENT. THIS CONSISTENT
APPROACH IS MAINLY BASED ON NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATE ON GUIDANCE AND
DIURNAL HEATING YET TO OCCUR. ONE OTHER SPOT TO KEEP AN EYE ON IS
THE MOISTURE INFLUX LIFTING NORTH FROM THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE FL PANHANDLE. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING AND DISCUSSION IS
BELOW.

MUSHER


TWO SLIGHT RISK AREAS WERE REINTRODUCED IN THE VICINITY OF THE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO LIE WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS PERIOD.  THESE AREA WERE WHERE THERE
WAS GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE HI RES ARW...NMM...NAM CONEST AND CMC
GEM FOR HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS.    OVERALL---NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE RECENT PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  PW VALUES WILL
REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 2.00-2.25"+ RANGE---1.5+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY.  WITH
THE BROAD UPPER TROF FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THIS FRONT
OVER THE NORTHEAST---UPPER DIFFLUENCE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE UVVS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT.  THIS WILL SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS---ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT WITH EXACT
PLACEMENT AS ACTIVITY MAY AGAIN BE WIDELY SCATTERED.  WHERE
CONVECTION DOES ORGANIZE---ISOLATED 2-3"+ AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN A
FEW HOURS.

ORAVEC
$$





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