Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FOUS30 KWBC 241455
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1051 AM EDT SUN APR 24 2016

...VALID 15Z SUN APR 24 2016 - 12Z MON APR 25 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

...UPPER MS VALLEY...

AN INCREASING AREA OF STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY AIDED BY STRONG RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME NEARLY E/W BANDED
AREAS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THRU THE PERIOD..SOME OF WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE 12Z ARW ON SAT...WHICH HAD BEEN
NORTH OF MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE...HAS SHIFTED SOUTH IN THE
00Z MODEL RUN...WITH ITS AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN ALIGNING BETTER WITH
THE 85H-7H CONVERGENCE AXES.  THIS ADJUSTMENT SWD ALLOWS FOR A
BETTER FIT WITH MOST OF THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE ACRS THE UPR MS
VALLEY WITH GENL CONSENSUS OF 00Z HI RES GUIDANCE SUPPORTING AN
AXIS OF 2 TO 3 INCH RAINS FROM PARTS OF NRN MN INTO NRN WI AND THE
U.P. OF MI.  WHILE THESE RAINS ARE MORE OF A LONGER DURATION
EVENT...WHERE THE STGR NEAR STATIONARY BANDS SET UP RAINFALL
AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH SOME OF THE LOWER 3 HR FF GUIDANCE VALUES
ACRS THE REGION...PSBLY LEADING TO ISOLD RUNOFF PROBLEMS.

SULLIVAN/HURLEY
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.