Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 140826
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2017

...VALID 12Z MON AUG 14 2017 - 12Z TUE AUG 15 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
DUC SNL 20 NW MKO 30 ESE FYV 25 WNW SRC 35 WNW M97 15 NE MEM
35 SE MKL 30 W MSL 10 ENE GWO 30 SSE GLH 35 S ELD 35 E 4F4
10 N HQZ 1F9 35 SSE SPS DUC.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
55 SE SAD 30 ESE DUG 45 S DUG 65 SSE OLS 15 W OLS 20 NNW DMA
35 ENE IWA 45 ESE PRC 40 S FLG 20 SW INW 25 WNW SJN 70 WNW TCS
40 WNW TCS 45 E SAD 55 SE SAD.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NW DLL MXO 20 NW CNC 10 SSE CSQ 25 SSW ICL 35 SSW FNB
35 NNW MHK 15 WNW HJH 25 SE ODX 30 NW BVN 35 NNW OFK 10 SW SUX
20 SE SUX 15 SW BNW 15 NNE ALO 20 SSE LUM 20 NNE RCX 15 W RRL
30 NW DLL.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SE EYF 10 WSW CPC 15 SW FLO 10 NE HRJ 20 SSW SFQ 9W7
10 ESE ECG 15 NNW EWN OAJ 15 SE EYF.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 ENE ELD 30 SE TXK 10 WSW LBR 20 NNE TKI 15 SE GLE 20 SE 1F0
20 ESE ADM 20 ESE MLC 35 SE RKR 20 SSE MWT 20 E M89 35 NE LLQ
45 NNE GLH 30 NNE GLH 30 ENE ELD.


...BLENDED THE 04 UTC NBM WITH WPC CONTINUITY AS STARTING POINT
FOR MANUAL CORRECTIONS BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...

...AZ/NM...

MODELS AGREE THAT A MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING MOISTURE TREND.
ACCORDINGLY...CONVECTION MAY FOCUS TODAY FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM TO
SE AZ/SRN NM IN THE LEAD AXIS OF MAX LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. EVEN THOUGH DAY1 QPF DOES NOT OFFER HEAVY AREAL AVG
QPF AMOUNTS...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES.

...NE TX/SE OK ...CENTRAL/SRN AR...AND NRN LA/MS...

DIGGING IMPULSE ENERGIES THROUGH AN S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS HAS
FIRED ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN AN AXIS OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY OVER
NRN TX/SW OK. MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO SLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT...BUT
LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST CONTINUED ACTIVITY WILL FOCUS/REFOCUS DAY 1
IN THE WAVY FRONTAL ZONE AS ENHANCED IN ADVANCE OF THE
MCV/OUTFLOW. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH WITH MODEL SPECIFICS AND LEAD
IN MASS FIELDS...BUT HAVE FOCUSED HEAVIEST QPF POTENTIALS DAY1
DOWNSTREAM ACROSS NERN TX/SERN OK IN A REGION OF BEST SUSPECTED
INFLOW/INSTABILITY/LIFT. THIS AREA HAS RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RECENT
RAINS SO ADDITIONAL RAINS ARE PROBLEMATIC. ENHANCED LEAD THETAE
ADVECTION SHOULD MEANWHILE ALSO LEAD TO SLOW MOVING/TRAINING OF
CELLS DOWNSTREAM OVER AR AND NRN LA/MS. WPC ALSO JUST ISSUED
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION #687 THAT ADDRESSES THE LEAD-IN
FLOW DETAILS AND POTENTIALS. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
REGION AND TRAINING POTENTIAL...UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA.

...ERN CAROLINAS...

LINGERING IMPULSE ENERGY WITHIN A SLOW TO DISLODGE CAROLINAS TO
SERN US/CENTRAL GULF COAST DEEP MOISTURE AXIS WITH PWS AOA 2
INCHES SHOULD AGAIN FIRE CLUSTERS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION DAY1 IN A
REGION OF FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE SAGGED/WAVY FRONTAL ZONE. PREDICTABILITY OF
SPECIFICS OF CONVECTIVE FOCUS IS AT OR SOMEWHAT BELOW AVERAGE.
EVEN THOUGH DAY1 QPF DOES NOT OFFER HEAVY AREAL AVERAGE QPF...A
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SPOTTY ASSOCIATED LOCAL
RUNOFF ISSUES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS.

...N-CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...

IMPULSE PASSAGE WITHIN A NRN STREAM TROUGH AND UPPER JET SUPPORT
FAVORS ASCENT AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW IS ADVECTING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE REGION WITH AN
AXIS OF ENHANCING PW VALUES INCREASING TO THE 1.25-1.5 INCH RANGE
OVER THE ERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS FUELING INCREASED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY RECOUPS LATER PD
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH UPSTREAM SYSTEM APPROACH AND FRONTAL
ZONE LIFT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
ASSOCIATED LOCAL RUNOFF ISSUES MONDAY.

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

SCHICHTEL
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