Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
000
FOUS30 KWBC 210046
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
845 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...VALID 01Z THU JUL 21 2016 - 12Z THU JUL 21 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN...

A 6 TO 12 HR WINDOW OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTN/EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HRS WILL POSSIBLY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINS ACROSS ERN ND INTO NWRN MN. A SLIGHT DIP
IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES SHOULD DRIVE A BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH
AND EAST FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE NRN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
AOA 1.75 INCH PWS IS EXPECTED TO POOL IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD
FRONT AND NORTH OF THE LARGE UPPER DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BASED
OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD INTERACT WITH THE ELEVATED
MOISTURE CONTENT AND DEVELOPING SWRLY 20-30 KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET
TO ALLOW MULTIPLE STREAKS OR LINE SEGMENTS OF CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP BUT MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD OR DOWNSTREAM. THE GENERAL
CORRIDOR THE GUIDANCE IS FOCUSING ON IS ERN ND INTO NRN MN BUT THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE HI-RES PACKAGE VARY
ON EXACT LATITUDE AND DEPTH... ALONG WITH WHETHER THE ACTIVITY
WILL BE MORE SEVERE WEATHER THAN ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN. THOUGH
PATTERN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED FOR POTENTIAL MESO HEAVY RAIN...
STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND NORTH OF LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE. PLUS
1HR FFG NUMBERS ARE AS LOW AS .75 TO 1 INCH ALONG THE ND/MN BORDER
OR ALONG THE RED RIVER. THUS WITHOUT MODEL CONSENSUS BUT WITH
FAVORABLE FCST FIELDS AND CLIMATOLOGY... WPC WILL GO WITH A SEE
TEXT FOR LOCALIZED ISSUES.

MUSHER
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.