Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 251407
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1006 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

...VALID 15Z WED MAR 25 2015 - 12Z THU MAR 26 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NW LOU 15 NE M30 30 NW ARG 25 SW HRO 20 NE JSV 10 ESE SNL
10 NNE TIK 10 NW SWO 30 E WLD 25 SSE LXT 20 ESE PPQ 10 SSE BMI
25 ESE LAF 10 ESE AID 35 SE MIE 25 W CVG 20 NW LOU.


1400 UTC UPDATE

CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WERE
TO EXPAND THE NORTHERN EDGE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI---SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND A SMALL PORTION OF WEST
CENTRAL INDIANA.  THIS WAS TO COVER SOME OF THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST SREF.  OTHERWISE---NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
THINKING FROM THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

ORAVEC



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

THE HEAVY TO POSSIBLY EVEN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL OCCUR THRU
THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD..AND ESPECIALLY FROM LATER WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THRU WEDNESDAY NIGHT..AHEAD OF THE H5 S/WV DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE ROCKIES TODAY AND CONTINUING TO DIG INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE FRONT DRAPED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY..BEFORE BEGINNING
TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE
NORTHEASTWARD MOVING FRONTAL WAVE.  THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR THE EXPANDING AND INCREASINGLY HEAVY RAINS..WITH UP TO 50KTS
OF LOW LEVEL JET EVENTUALLY LEADING TO THE POOLING OF PWS VICINITY
OF THE FRONT TO NEAR OR ABOVE 1.25 INCHES..AND INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION UPPER JET DYNAMICS AIDING IN THE
LARGE SCALE LIFT.  FOR THE MOST PART..THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT BOTH MASS FIELD AND QPF-WISE WITH THIS
SYSTEM..WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE NAM QPF LOOKS TOO FAR NORTH
AND WEST WITH ITS HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS.  OTHERWISE..EXPECT AN
AXIS OF AT LEAST SOME 1.50-2.00+ INCH ARAL AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEAR THE CONFLUENCE
OF THE OH AND MS RIVERS..WITH ISOLATED GREATER THAN 3 INCH TOTALS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINS..WITH THIS THREAT MOST LIKELY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

TERRY
$$





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