Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 151851
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

...VALID 18Z TUE APR 15 2014 - 00Z THU APR 17 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 SSW AUG 10 W EEN 15 WNW SCH 20 WSW SLK CWER 10 NNE CERM CWSS
15 SSW AUG.


...NORTHEAST...

LITTLE CHANGE FM PREVIOUS THINKING HERE WITH MODELS CONTG TO
ADVERTISE A LONG DURATION HVY RNFL EVENT FOR THE REGION.  IN
ADDITION...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE LOW OVR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  LOCALIZED
RUNOFF ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE
THE LARGE SCALE TROF SWEEPS OUT TO SEA LATER TONIGHT OR EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOWED A WELL DEFINED PW PLUME IN PLACE WITH
H85 WINDS BLOWING FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 50 KTS CONTINUING TO FEED
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.  STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING ASOCTD WITH THE APCH OF THE AMPLIFYING GREAT LAKES AND OH
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAFL WILL BE MOST COMMON
WITH HEAVY RAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS PRECIPITATION SHIELD.  EXPECT
SOME 1 TO 2 INCH AMTS IN 3 TO 6 HOURS WITH LOCALIZED 3 INCH STORM
TOTALS BEING POSSIBLE.

BANN

$$





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