Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010617
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1259 AM EST MON FEB 01 2016

...VALID 0559Z MON FEB 01 2016 - 12Z MON FEB 01 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


...CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA...

A VERY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. IMPRESSIVE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH
POWERFUL JET DYNAMICS CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH WHAT IS ONLY A
MODEST AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST
THROUGH AZ. PWATS ARE AS HIGH AS 0.50 TO 0.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A 40 TO 50 KT S/SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET. HAVING SAID THAT...INSTABILITY IS QUITE  WEAK WITH
MUCAPE VALUES THAT ARE AT BEST AROUND 250 J/KG...AND LI/S THAT ARE
AROUND 0 TO -2. THE STRONGLY FORCED ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN
THOUGH CONTINUES TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AND IS SUSTAINING A BAND OF RATHER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE PHOENIX METROPOLITAN AREA. OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS FOR THIS
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS IT MOVES GRADUALLY THROUGH
EASTERN AZ. THE LAST COUPLE RUNS OF THE HRRR FAVOR RAINFALL RATES
LOCALLY OF A 0.50 INCH/HR AS THIS CONVECTIVE BAND MOVES EAST...AND
THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME ISOLATED RUNOFF PROBLEMS...AND PRIMARILY
FOR THE MORE URBANIZED SETTINGS AND AREA DRY WASHES/ARROYOS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

ORRISON
$$





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