Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260729
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...VALID 12Z SUN JUL 26 2015 - 12Z MON JUL 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SW ABR 25 W VVV 1G2 10 ESE MWM 15 W SPW 30 ENE YKN 30 SW MHE
35 E PIR 55 SE MBG 10 SW ABR.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 WSW SRQ 25 ESE SRQ 20 ENE RSW 45 ESE APF 35 SSW APF 60 W APF
55 SW SRQ 20 WSW SRQ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 N FAM 20 NE AIZ IXD 40 WNW EMP 20 WSW SLN 45 N RSL
25 ESE HSI 15 SE AIO 10 WSW OTM 20 NNE UIN 10 E ALN 25 N FAM.


SOUTHWEST FLORIDA

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ELONGATED UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF.  MODELS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA---WITH MORE SPREAD IN QPF SOLUTIONS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY TOTALS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS STRONG
INFLOW AXIS--WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5" POSSIBLE.

EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
EASTERN CO AROUND 0000 UTC MON---PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO
INTO NW KS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.


ORAVEC
$$





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