Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 200726
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
325 AM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

...VALID 12Z WED JUL 20 2016 - 12Z THU JUL 21 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...

THE NUMBER OF MODELS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL IS
DROPPING WITH TIME.  A FEW OF THE HIGH RES RAPID REFRESH MEMBERS
0-4Z STILL INITIATED HEAVY SHOWERS/STORMS COMING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MN AND MOVED THEM INTO ADJACENT SOUTHERN WI OR IOWA.  AMONG THE
MAJOR CONVECTIVE ALLOWING ENSEMBLES THE 00Z RUN OF THE NSSL WRF
REMAINS THE HOLDOUT SHOWING HEAVY RAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE
REGION.  CONSEQUENTLY...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING.

OTHERWISE...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A DEFINED
UPPER DIVERGENCE/LOWER CONVERGENCE SIGNAL TO TRIGGER SUSTAINED
SHOWERS/STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE OVERNIGHT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK
300 MB DIVERGENCE MAXIMA THAT HAVEN`T BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN MN.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS NOTED BY THE LAYER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 70 PERCENT IN EASTERN IOWA...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHETHER A STRONG ENOUGH ASCENT TO TRIGGER CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TOP OF THE CENTRAL US RIDGE. THE
300 MB DIVERGENCE IN LAST NIGHTS FORECASTS IS NOT PRESENT IN
TONIGHT`S FORECASTS.

PETERSEN
$$




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