Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 020104
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
904 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

...VALID 03Z TUE SEP 02 2014 - 00Z WED SEP 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNW HRO 20 SSW GMJ 10 NE TUL 30 WNW TUL 20 SE PNC 15 ENE PNC
WLD 40 W CNU 20 SSE LXT 35 WNW SET 15 N TAZ CMI 30 SE DNV
10 ENE EYE 15 NNW BAK 10 NE BMG 10 SE OLY 20 E SAR 15 SW FAM
35 NNE UNO 20 NW UNO 20 NNW HRO.


03Z UPDATE...
EXPANDED SLIGHT RISK AREA ENEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN IL/CNTL IN GIVEN
GENL MODEL SUPPORT FOR STG MSTR FLUX INTO THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS
85H SWLY FLOW INCREASES TO OVER 30 KTS WHILE AT THE SAME TIME
INCREASING RT ENTRANCE REGION UPR JET DYNAMICS EXPAND OVER THE
AREA WITH PROGRESSION OF S/WV IMPULSE OVER NEB/KS REGION.  PATRN
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED EXPANSION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
OVER MO/SE KS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH MEAN LAYER FLOW PATRN
SUPPORTIVE OF TRAINING ACRS PARTS OF THE REGION.  NO OTHER CHANGES
TO EARLIER REASONING ACRS AREAS OF NE OK/SE KS INTO MO.  SEE MPD
#338 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.   SULLIVAN    PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS...

THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THRU THIS REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR ENHANCING AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION..WITH SOME HEAVY
TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINS MOST LIKELY FROM PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  LARGE SCALE LIFT
VICINITY OF THE FRONT WILL BE ENHANCED BEGINNING VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BY H5 S/WV ENERGY NOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS..WITH THIS S/WV REACHING THE GREAT LAKES BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.    SUSTAINED 30-40KTS OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING IN PERSISTENLY HIGH
MOISTURE..WITH PWS FORECAST TO POOL TO NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
VICINITY OF THE FRONT.  THE COMBINATION OF THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT
AND HIGH MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THE IDEA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH THE HEAVY RAINS.  THE DEEP LAYERED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO SOME CELL TRAINING..ESPECIALLY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING..AND PARTICULARLY SO FROM PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN
OK/SOUTHEASTERN KS THRU THE MID MS AND INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEYS.
EXPECT SOME ISOLATED 1-2 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR OR SO
AND SOME ISOLATED AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WITHIN THE THREAT
AREA..WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS.  STUCK CLOSE TO
THE HIRES ARW..NMMB AND WRFNSSL QPFS..AS THEY WERE ALL IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FORECAST.

TERRY




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