Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 280650
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
149 AM EST SUN DEC 28 2014

...VALID 06Z SUN DEC 28 2014 - 12Z MON DEC 29 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
LZU 10 ESE FFC 20 S AUO 35 NNE BFM 10 N PQL ASD 25 SE BTR
20 SW BTR 25 WSW BTR 25 WNW BTR 35 SSE HEZ 20 NNW TCL 20 WNW 4A9
25 NNW 4A9 10 N DNN 25 NW GVL 10 N LZU LZU.


EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN MS---LARGE PORTIONS OF ALABAMA INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA


THERE WERE NOT A LOT OF CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL OUTLOOK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL STATES.  THE THREAT FOR HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE EARLY IN THIS PERIOD WHEN MOIST WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF
COASTAL AREA.  THIS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
PRECIPITATION IN A WEST SOUTHWEST TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
IN THE AXIS OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES---2 TO 2.5+ STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN STRETCHING FROM EASTERN LA INTO SOUTHERN
MS---LARGE PORTIONS OF AL INTO NORTHERN GA.  MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR WEAKENING OF THE MOIST WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AFTER 1200 UTC AND
A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITIES.  PRIOR TO
THAT---IN AREA OF TRAINING OF PRECIPITATION---ISOLATED 1-1.5"+
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN AN HOUR POSSIBLE--WITH ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.

ORAVEC
$$





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