Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 011853
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT WED OCT 01 2014

...VALID 18Z WED OCT 01 2014 - 00Z FRI OCT 03 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
MKC 25 ESE IRK 10 S UIN 15 S PPQ SET 25 S SUS 35 ESE TBN
30 NW HRO XNA 10 SW GCM 20 NE SWO 30 WNW PNC 20 ESE AAO
15 SSE FOE MKC.

MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 WSW SGF 25 E PPF CNU 30 SSE OJC 30 SSE LXT 25 W COU
20 ENE COU 15 NNE VIH 10 SSW TBN SGF 15 WSW SGF.


EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY

THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
THIS PERIOD FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION INTO THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.   THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING
GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND THE
UPSTREAM NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED FRONT MOVING EASTWARD WITH TIME
FROM THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVE
CONVECTION THIS PERIOD IN A REGION OF WELL DEFINED UPPER
DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS AND IN AN
AXIS OF PW VALUES 1.5-2.0+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD---CONVECTION LIKELY TO FOCUS ALONG THE WEST TO
EAST ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WHERE TRAINING IN A
WEST TO EAST DIRECTION IS POSSIBLE.  THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM CONVECTION PUSHING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT DURING THURSDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
THE TWO WILL BRING A INCREASING CHANCE OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE
AMOUNTS THIS PERIOD.  THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE HI RES
ARW---NMM---NSSL WRF AND NAM CONEST WITH THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI.  THE ARW---NMM AND NAM CONEST ALL SHOW MAX AMOUNTS IN
THE 5-10" RANGE---AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE ARE VERY CLOSE WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE QPF AXES.  WHILE THE ABOVE HI RES GUIDANCE IS VERY
SIMILAR---THERE IS ALSO SIGNAL IN THE REMAINING LARGER SCALE
GUIDANCE FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS---ALBEIT FARTHER TO THE
NORTH FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS.  OVERALL HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE HI RES GUIDANCE WITH
THE FARTHER SOUTHWARD AXIS---ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT HEAVY
TOTALS FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

ORAVEC

$$




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