Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 012041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
441 PM EDT MON JUN 01 2015

...VALID 21Z MON JUN 01 2015 - 12Z TUE JUN 02 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 ENE PVC 15 SSE MTP 20 S MJX 10 W 2W6 15 SE BCB 10 SSE 6V3
25 WNW I16 25 S 48I 20 NW W99 25 NNE HGR 10 NE ABE 10 NNE EEN
15 NNW LEW 10 NNE BGR 35 NE BHB 30 SW CXGM 80 SSE BHB 25 ENE PVC.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 W OMK CXWF 30 NE HVR 55 WNW JDN 10 NNE 3HT 10 NNE 3DU
30 SSE MLP 35 ENE MWH 20 W OMK.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

THE INCREASINGLY LIKELIHOOD OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ASHORE ALONG PW
AND MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES NEARING 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS THAT
OVERLAP APPRECIABLY WITH ALREADY LOW FFG VALUES SUPPORT A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT FOR WESTERN WASHINGTON
EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF MONTANA.  ADDITIONALLY...HI RES ENSEMBLE
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 3-6 HOURLY FFG VALUES
AVERAGE 15 TO 45 PERCENT...WHICH ALIGN WELL WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE
AND THE LATEST WPC QPF THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST COAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...

A WELL DEFINED AND PROGRESSIVE H5 TROF MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THIS PERIOD..ALONG WITH
ANOTHER WELL DEFINED SOUTHERN STREAM H5 TROF WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER
MOVING THRU THE TN VALLEY..WILL LEAD TO A WET PATTERN FROM NEW
ENGLAND SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF COAST
REGION.  THE SURFACE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM H5
TROF WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA..AS THE
SOUTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE TN VALLEY CLOSED LOW
INHIBITS ANY SUBSTANTIAL SOUTH AND EAST PUSH TO THE FRONT.  EXPECT
THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE MID LEVEL TROUGHING..FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCED BY A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL WAVE..AND VERY HIGH
PWS ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL
TROF..TO SUPPORT THE ORGANIZED...WIDESPREAD AND LOCALLY HEAVY
CONVECTION/RAINS..AND ESPECIALLY SO FROM EASTERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  OVERALL..THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT MASS FIELD-WISE AND DECENT AGREEMENT
QPF-WISE..SO FOLLOWED THEM CLOSELY WITH JUST A BIT MORE WEIGHT
GIVEN TO THE HIRES GUIDANCE.  SOME 1-2+ INCH AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY OVER EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES..WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3+ INCHES
POSSIBLE..GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE/SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION AND/OR TEMPORARY CELL TRAINING.

TERRY/JAMES
$$




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