Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
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FOUS30 KWBC 310041
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
840 PM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

...VALID 01Z TUE MAY 31 2016 - 12Z TUE MAY 31 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 ENE HNZ 15 NE RIC 10 NNW DOV MJX 30 SE ACY 25 ESE WAL
25 ENE 9W7 30 SE MQI 10 SE HSE 15 SE MRH 20 SE NCA 15 WNW SUT
30 SW MYR 20 ESE OGB 10 NNE SSC 15 N SOP 10 ENE HNZ.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 ESE LBF 20 NNE ODX 15 NE ONL 25 E PIR 10 NNW MIB 15 N K06D
30 WSW RDR FFM 20 SSW LXL 10 ESE ROS 25 NNW LUM RGK 10 N SLB
20 W LNK 30 SW CNK 10 NNW GBD 25 N DDC 45 SE GLD 35 SW MCK
20 ESE LBF.


0100 UTC UPDATE

NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL
OUTLOOK

ORAVEC


...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE THIS PERIOD IN RESPONSE
TO A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OFF NEAR THE
MT/ND BORDER. INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASING AREA OF STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
DAKOTAS BY THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AS THEY TAP PROJECTED AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPES OF AROUND 2000
J/KG. EMPHASIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF
ADVANCING HEIGHT FALLS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT FROM
MINNESOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS...WITH SEVERAL ORGANIZED
STRONG BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF AN INVIGORATING SFC WAVE AND PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN MN. PWS APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
TO POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY...LIKELY SUPPORTING AREAL AVERAGE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES THOUGH ISOLD HEAVIER SHORT
TERM AMOUNTS OF 3 INCHES OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
ORGANIZED STORMS/POSSIBLE MCS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NE INTO KS WITH MODELS SHOWING
THAT AREA UNDER FAVORABLE THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASING
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES MON EVENING.


..TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS..

MUCH OF TEXAS HAS HAS SEEN ITS SHARE OF HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAIN
EVENTS OF LATE WHICH HAS LOWERED FF GUIDANCE VALUES CONSIDERABLY
FROM THE PANHANDLE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE AND OVER
THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MEANING THIS REGION IS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FLASH FLOODING FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN IDENTIFYING ANY LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TODAY. A
LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL DRIFT INTO A POSITION FROM ARKANSAS TO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY AFTERNOON...LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY
CENTERS THAT HAD BEEN ENHANCED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITHIN THIS ZONE IS RATHER WEAK...HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE
CORRESPONDING MODEL QPF SIGNAL. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SLOW MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL MAY DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
OK/WESTERN AR DOWN TO SOUTHEAST TX...BUT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE THEIR LOCATION AND COVERAGE.

BACK TO THE WEST...THE SURFACE PATTERN IS QUITE WEAK WITH NO WELL
DEFINED BOUNDARY ASIDE FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH
THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS MORNING. AIRMASS WILL
REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
TO BE HIGHLY MESOSCALE DRIVEN...INITIATING ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALONG
WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PARTS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM THE SOUTH ROLLING PLAINS DOWN
TO NEAR AND EAST OF THE BIG BEND. HI-RES GUIDANCE SIGNALS
POTENTIAL FOR SMALL SCALE...SHORT TERM RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES...ALTHOUGH THE LOOSE DEFINITION OF THE THREAT AREA MAKES IT
DIFFICULT TO OUTLINE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.


...MIDDLE PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD...

BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VERY SLOW MOVING THIS
PERIOD...DRIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST SC INTO SOUTHEAST NC. THE
CIRCULATION WILL MAINTAIN AN AREA OF HIGHER PWS NEAR ITS
CIRCULATION...AS WELL AS A PRIMARY RIVER OF HIGHER TROPICAL PWS
OUT AHEAD...AFFECTING PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC AND NEWD INTO
COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. SOME
BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE CIRCULATION
CENTER TODAY WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN...BUT THE AREAL EXTENT
SHOULD BE SMALL. FARTHER NORTH...FOCUSED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
SUPPORT A SLIGHTLY WIDER SWATH OF 1 TO 2 INCH AND EMBEDDED HEAVIER
RAIN. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED WHEREVER CONVECTIVE
CELLS BECOME PERSISTENT FOR ANY AMOUNT OF TIME.

SULLIVAN/BURKE
$$




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