Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FOUS30 KWBC 221529
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1129 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...VALID 15Z FRI JUL 22 2016 - 12Z SAT JUL 23 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 NNE K9D7 15 ESE FFM 20 W VVV 40 W ABR 45 ENE HEI CYEN
20 NNE K9D7.


15Z UPDATE AMMENDED
ISOLD SHORT TERM HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACRS PARTS OF OH
IN ADVANCE OF WEAK VORT OVER ERN IN ENHANCING WEAK LIFT INTO E/W
CONVECTIVE BAND DROPPING SLOWLY SWD ACRS THE CNTL PORTION OF THE
STATE.  PLEASE SEE MPD #0483 VALID UNTIL 1830Z FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.



NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ND AND IA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE ND ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGER/BETTER DEVELOPED DUE TO STRONGER DYNAMICS
(PARTICULARLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY OF 3000-5000 J/KG
PER THE 21Z SREF MEAN FORECAST) BEING AVAILABLE AS IT RIDES ALONG
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A CAPPING INVERSION/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE.  THE GALVEZ-DAVISON INSTABILITY INDEX IMPLIES SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS BEING POSSIBLE ACROSS ND, PARTICULARLY FROM
THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE DEGREE OF
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED ACROSS ND SHOULD ALLOW
FOR FORWARD PROPAGATION, BUT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE
FAIRLY LOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ND.  WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING PAST 1.75", HOURLY RAIN RATES
COULD EXCEED 2" WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN OR WHERE
MESOCYCLONES DEVELOP WITHIN THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  MAINTAINED
THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ND FROM PREVIOUS DAYS HERE.  UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE COMPLEX EXPECTED IN NORTHWEST IA TONIGHT
POSITION-WISE AND STRENGTH-WISE KEPT THE RISK AT SEE TEXT/MARGINAL
LEVELS.

ROTH/SULLIVAN
$$




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.