Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 231906
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
206 PM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Monday Night)...
At 1 PM...isolated to scattered convection was developing across
Llano and Burnet counties and moving south southwest around 15-20
mph. The mesoscale environment was characterized by an uncapped
atmosphere with healthy SBCAPE values of 2500-3000 J/KG and strong
low level lapse rates to about 750 mb. This convection is being aided
by some weak upper level support due to a mid to upper level low in
southeast Texas. This convection should continue to develop
throughout the afternoon hours and contain some briefly heavy
downpours and frequent cloud to ground lightning before dissipating
after dark. Also can`t rule out some potential gusty outflow winds as
well, perhaps up to 40 mph. This convection may be able to reach as
far south as San Antonio but most hi-res solutions dissipate this
activity north of the metro area.

Isolated shower activity could linger into the night time hours due
to the aforementioned upper low still in the area. Otherwise lows
will fall again into the 70s across the region.

Monday should be relatively much quieter with respect to PoPs
compared to today. High pressure will continue to dominate the region
and keep high temperatures in the triple digits for many locations
across South Central Texas.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The majority of the week will continue to be characterized by high
pressure and hot temperatures. Moisture will be relatively lacking
compared to last week and thus PoP chances will be slight at best and
again confined to the Coastal Plains in the afternoon hours.
Attention will have to be paid to heat advisory criteria late week as
heat indices could eclipse the 108 degree threshold for much of the
CWA. Additionally, a continued period of dryness will also take a
toll on grasses and vegetation and increase the concern for fire
potential.

Next weekend, both the GFS and ECMWF advertise a weak cold front
passage with significant differences in timing and PoP potential but
doesn`t look like it will provide much in the way of relief from the
hot temperatures we have been experiencing lately. In fact, this
front may only serve to increase wind fields and create elevated
fire weather conditions...especially if no PoPs occur. More to come
on this potential with later model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77 100  77  99  77 /  20  -   -   10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  99  76  99  76 /  20   0  -   10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     76 100  75  98  76 /  20   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            75  98  74  96  74 /  20  20  10  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 100  78  99  78 /  10  -    0  10   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        77  99  76  99  76 /  20  20  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             75 101  76  99  76 /  10   0  -   10   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  99  76  98  76 /  20   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   77  99  76  98  77 /  20  10   0  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       77 100  78  98  77 /  20   0  -   10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           76 100  77  98  77 /  10   0  -   10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...TB3
Public Service/Data Collection...33



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