Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 161155
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
555 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.AVIATION...
A mix of -FZRAPLSN can be expected at the TAF sites this morning
until around midday when it shifts to the south and east away from
the sites. Although MVFR CIGs will linger through midday at some
airports, low end VFR CIGs will prevail at the TAF sites. As a drier
airmass filters in this afternoon, CIGs rise with clouds eventually
become SCT tonight into Wednesday. Northerly winds of 15 to 25 KTs
with gusts 25 to 35 KTs will prevail much of today, then decrease to
less than 10 KTs tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday)...
Winter weather event underway across the Hill Country and northern
parts of South Central Texas slowly spreading to the remainder of
South Central Texas. The strong cold front has moved through all of
our area with a corresponding rapid drop in temperatures. Although
patches of rain continued where temperatures were above freezing, a
mix of freezing rain, sleet, and eventually snow has developed where
temperatures have dropped below freezing. Isentropic lift continues
this mix of precipitation this morning, then shifts to the south and
east this afternoon with all precipitation ending early this evening.
Forecast soundings show as the sub-freezing layer deepens, a mix of
sleet and snow is expected north with freezing rain and sleet south.
Ice accumulations of mainly 1/10 inch are expected with isolated 1/4
inch amounts possible. Snow accumulations of less than 1/2 inch and
mainly less than 1/10 inch are also possible. Temperatures will not
show much trend today remaining below freezing across most areas. As
the airmass dries, decreasing clouds and winds will allow for a hard
freeze tonight across most areas. Temperatures should rise above
freezing across our area with a great deal of sun on Wednesday.

LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Monday)...
All models have slowed the progression of the next upper level trough
and it`s now expected for Thursday night into Friday. The threat for
another round of winter type precipitation has been significantly
reduced as temperatures are expected to be above freezing Thursday
night into Friday when rain chances come back into the forecast.
Prior to this, another freeze, with a hard freeze some areas, is
expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A warming trend is
expected after this as southerly winds return late week into this
weekend. Another upper level trough and surface cold front move
through our area on Sunday bringing chances of showers for Saturday
into Sunday. Some instability will develop and have introduced
thunderstorms to the forecast for Sunday. Cooler and drier is
expected for next Monday, though a bit warmer than our ongoing cold
airmass.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              28  20  38  24  44 /  50  -    0  -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  30  18  37  21  43 /  50  -    0  -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     30  21  38  25  44 /  60  10   0  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            29  15  37  21  45 /  30  -    0  -   10
Del Rio Intl Airport           36  27  41  28  47 /  30  -    0  10  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        28  14  37  21  45 /  40  -    0  -   10
Hondo Muni Airport             34  22  41  27  44 /  50  -    0  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        30  19  38  25  43 /  60  10   0  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   30  20  37  24  42 /  60  10   0  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       31  22  39  28  43 /  50  10   0  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           33  23  40  29  44 /  60  10   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
counties: Atascosa...Bandera...Bastrop...Bexar...Blanco...Burnet...
Caldwell...Comal...De Witt...Edwards...Fayette...Frio...Gillespie...
Gonzales...Guadalupe...Hays...Karnes...Kendall...Kerr...Kinney...
Lavaca...Lee...Llano...Medina...Real...Travis...Uvalde...
Williamson...Wilson.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
counties: Val Verde.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the
following counties: Dimmit...Maverick...Zavala.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...17
Synoptic/Grids...04
Public Service/Data Collection...Williams



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