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000
FXUS64 KEWX 162306 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
606 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN THE VICINITY OF JUNCTION DUE TO
STRONG SFC HEATING AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE DRY-LINE. CORFIDI
VECTORS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ESE WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY. 12Z HI-RES NMM AND CIRA WRF ALSO
FCST CONVECTION TO TRACK ESE THRU AT LEAST 09Z. THUS HAVE ADJUSTED
THE POP AND WX GRIDS FOR TONIGHT. THESE STORMS DO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE STRONG OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS DUE TO THE HIGH SFC TEMPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING WEST OF A KBMQ TO
KT82 LINE AND AGAIN FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. NO IMPACTS
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES. VFR SKIES THIS EVENING BECOME MVFR AND THEN
IFR LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS DEVELOPS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRATUS LIFTS AND BECOMES FEW-SCT LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH EVENING. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WILL PREVAIL.
EXCEPT VARIABLE MAINLY WLY EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE DRYLINE RETREATS BACK INTO WESTERN TEXAS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP OVER LLANO...BURNET...AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES...WHERE
MARGINAL INSTABILITY CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FOLLOWED BY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING CLOUDS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AT THE DAILY
RECORD HIGH FOR MAY 17TH AT DEL RIO AND CLOSE TO THE RECORD DAILY
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. WITH THE HOT AFTERNOON HIGHS ON
FRIDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST PART OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR SATURDAY...WITH A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME HIGHS
ON SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ON SATURDAY NEAR THE DRY LINE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. ON SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
TO FORM OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE
HILL COUNTRY TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. AS A RESULT
MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO
THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.

IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS. MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A
S/W TROF MOVING JUST NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEREFORE SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING TODAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR MAY 17TH AND MAY 18TH AT AUSTIN...DEL RIO AND
SAN ANTONIO ARE LISTED BELOW.

  LOCATION            MAY 17TH      MAY 18TH

AUSTIN BERGSTROM     93 IN 2003    94 IN 2003
AUSTIN MABRY         96 IN 1925    97 IN 1925
DEL RIO             101 IN 2003   103 IN 2003
SAN ANTONIO          97 IN 2003    97 IN 1989

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  95  72  93  72 /  10  10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  95  71  92  71 /  10  10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  95  71  93  71 /  -   10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  94  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72 104  74  98  75 /  -   10  10  10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  93  70  92  70 /  10  10  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  98  70  95  71 /  -   10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  94  71  92  70 /  -   10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  73  90  72 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  95  72  92  72 /  -   10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  95  71  92  72 /  -   10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30