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000
FXUS64 KEWX 161750 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1250 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
A LINE OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS ALONG THE I35 CORRIDOR IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN
OKLAHOMA MOVES TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE ACROSS
AREA TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND EVENING. A MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 23 KNOTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING WITH WIND SPEEDS DECREASING OVERNIGHT TO ABOUT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE OVERNIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RESUME LATE FRIDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE I35 SITES. KDRT SHOULD
REMAIN VFR FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...FOR WARMER AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS.
RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE ON FRIDAY.  THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS
LIKE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY SUNNY
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS.  WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY TO
ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING...OTHERWISE DID NOT INCLUDE ANY OTHER RAIN
CHANCES AT THIS TIME FOR THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND...AS S/W ENERGY PASSES NORTH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WEATHER
PATTERNS FOR NEXT WEEK SHOW CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM AFTERNOONS.
AFTER A S/W TROF PASSES NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY EVENING...SOUTH OF A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  96  71  93  72 /  -   -   -   -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  95  70  92  71 /  -   -   -   -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  95  70  93  70 /  -   -   -   -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  96  70  92  70 /  -   -   -   -   10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           72 104  74  98  75 /   0  -   -   10  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  95  69  92  70 /  -   -   -   -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  98  70  94  71 /   0  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        70  94  70  92  70 /  -   -   -   -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  93  73  91  72 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       71  95  72  92  72 /  -   -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  94  71  92  72 /  -   -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32