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000
FXUS64 KEWX 241802
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
102 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA THROUGH
19Z AND THE AUSTIN AREA THROUGH 21Z. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS AND BRIEF VSBY LOWERINGS TO 1/4 MILE
FROM HEAVY DOWNPOURS. A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST TO PRODUCE HIGHER CIGS ABOVE 4000 FT AND A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH 21Z WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS DECREASING LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED BY MODELS
TO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST.
WILL FACTOR IN THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF THE RAIN COOLED AIR
AND WAKE SUBSIDENCE OF THE MCV FROM TODAY/S COMPLEX TO LEAVE OUT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FOR LATER IN THE TAF PERIODS. WILL CONTINUE
WITH LOW CLOUDS TO MVFR LEVELS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK AS A RESULT OF
THE ADDED GROUND MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MCV EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MCS NOW MOVING TO THE NE WITH A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM VANDERPOOL
TO HONDO TO PEARSALL. THE MCS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ADDITION CONVECTION FORMING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL STILL POSSIBLE
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH THE LATEST TOTAL BLENDED PWS PRODUCT
DEPICTING PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWFA. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS AND HIGH TEMPS BASED ON THE ANTICIPATED TRACK OF
THE MCS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 906 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION OVER THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS CENTERED NEAR LA PRYOR SHOWING
CCW ROTATION INDICATIVE OF AN MCV. LATEST HI-RES MODELS MOVE THE MCV
SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND NE WITH CONVECTION WEAKENING. WITH TOTAL BLENDED
PWS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.6 INCHES LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS. GRIDS AND TEXT PRODUCTS UPDATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

AVIATION...
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVED FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS DOWN TO THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS KDRT THIS MORNING. WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONSIN PLACE...EXPECT STORMS TO REDEVELOP
OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
EXPECTED AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STORMS CLEAR OUT THE I-35 AREA
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AT OR AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS ALL
LOCAL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
AN MCS/MCV IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU
WHILE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF CHIHUAHUA. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCV SHOULD TEND TO WANE TOWARD
MORNING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. THE MCV STALLS OVER WESTERN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN MEXICAN STATE OF COAHUILA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
THESE TWO FEATURES ALONG WITH SOME SURFACE BOUNDARIES TO INTERACT
WITH A MOIST AIRMASS TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS
MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO 3 OR 4 INCHES...GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER
OVERNIGHT. THE MCV WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE SHORT-WAVE BY SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY AS THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND OF DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED DUE TO CLOUDS
AND RAIN.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE SHORT-WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SUNDAY AND PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. A
RAIN-FREE PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WEAKENS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY DUE
TO PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              88  72  93  72  94 /  50  50  30  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  87  71  92  70  92 /  50  50  30  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     89  72  92  71  93 /  50  40  30  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            84  69  87  69  90 /  60  50  30  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  73  91  74  94 /  40  50  20  10  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        86  70  88  70  90 /  50  50  30  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             87  73  92  72  93 /  60  50  30  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        88  72  91  71  92 /  50  40  30  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  73  90  72  91 /  30  30  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  73  91  73  92 /  60  40  30  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           88  73  91  72  92 /  50  40  30  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30