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000
FXUS64 KEWX 130005
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
705 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK 500 HPA LOW WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST TO EAST PART OF TEXAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE MOIST S AND SE SFC WINDS TO PREVAIL
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCT CLOUDS AT 4 THSD TO 8 THSD FT WITH
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED THROUGH 05Z.
SCT SHRA AND TSRA FROM NEAR KUVA TO KSAT AND EXTENDING NORTH TO
KERV AND EAST OF KECU WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
THROUGH 02Z AND THEN WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. SKY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CIGS 1 THSD TO 2 THSD BKN VCNTY OF KAUS
TO KSAT AND KSSF AFTER 05Z AND VCNTY OF KDRT AFTER 09Z. CIGS OF
2 THSD TO 3 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED AFTER 15Z THURSDAY BECOMING
4 THSD TO 6 THSD SCT WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK MID LEVEL LOW/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL CONTINUE OUT TO THE WEST
OVER NERN MEXICO...RESULTING IN A SLY LOW LEVEL FEED OF GULF
MOISTURE INTO S TX. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY WEST
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WHILE LESSENING THEM OVER THE EASTERN
COASTAL PLAINS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT HOWEVER...A SHORT WAVE LOBE WILL
LIFT OUT NEWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE WHICH WILL HELP ENHANCE RAIN
CHANCES STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL BEGIN TO MENTION LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AS MODELS
INDICATE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOW
MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
CONTINUING THE HIGHER POPS AND MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE/WESTERN CWA ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
SLOWLY LIFTS NNEWD. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IF FUTURE
MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO POINT TO SLOW ORGANIZED CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU EARLY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD TAPER OFF TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. ONLY CONCERN IS THE LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT SPLIT
OR WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER CENTRAL TX ON SUNDAY...AND THE
CANADIAN MODEL JUST PARKS THE UPPER LOW/WEAKNESS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE BETWEEN BIG BEND AND DEL RIO IN MONDAY. THEREFORE THE NO
POP FORECAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD BE IN JEOPARDY.

FOR MONDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE UPPER
RIDGING TAKING CONTROL WITH SLIM TO NO RAIN CHANCES...HIGHER
MAX TEMPERATURES...AND MOIST SELY LOW LEVEL BREEZES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  95  74  93  73 /  10  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  73  94  72  94  71 /  10  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  92  73  91  71 /  10  10  20  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  92  73  92  72 /  10  -   10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           75  91  74  88  75 /  30  30  40  50  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  94  73  94  72 /  10  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  91  73  91  72 /  20  20  30  30  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  92  73  91  71 /  10  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  95  75  94  75 /  10  10  -   20  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  90  74 /  10  10  20  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  91  73  91  73 /  10  20  20  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08/09
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05/01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12