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000
FXUS64 KEWX 130838
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
338 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING NORTHWEST
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A BROAD UPPER LOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AN
EROSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN
TEXAS. THIS CONTINUED EROSION AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH THE
MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY EXPECTED FROM THE COASTAL PRAIRIES INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. LITTLE OR NO FOCUS EXCEPT FOR CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN A HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ENVIRONMENT. THEREFORE
MODERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS AND WILL BE DESIGNATED SO IN THE
GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 OVER
THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR. CONVECTION WILL LINGER TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS DISTURBANCES MOVE NORTH COUPLED WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET. LOWS TONIGHT NEAR 70 HILLS...LOW TO
MID 70S ELSEWHERE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WEST
AND CENTRAL GULF ON FRIDAY WITH DEEP TROPOSPHERIC SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MOISTURE CONTINUING OVER OUR WESTERN CWA. HOWEVER...DRY
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION FRIDAY WITH LESSENING RAIN AMOUNTS AND
PROBABILITIES. STILL THOUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET
AND CONTINUED HIGH PW ENVIRONMENT...COULD SEE SOME HEAVIER AMOUNTS
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER EASTERN AREAS AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN. FRIDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S
OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS TO THE MID 90S OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORRIDOR.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
BY SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW AND WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING OVER THAT AREA. ON SUNDAY...A GENERAL RIDGE
PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCE OF
RAIN. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  74  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  93  72  95  72  95 /  20  10  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     92  72  92  71  93 /  30  10  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            92  72  92  72  93 /  20  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           89  75  89  74  94 /  40  50  40  40  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             91  73  90  72  93 /  40  30  10  20  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  72  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   94  75  96  75  96 /  20  10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       91  74  90  73  93 /  30  20  10  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           90  73  89  72  92 /  30  30  10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12