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000
FXUS64 KEWX 180544
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Mostly cloudy skies are expected to persist across the eastern two-
thirds of the local area for the rest of this afternoon and evening.
For areas along the Rio Grande and southern Edwards Plateau, breaks
in the cloud coverage are likely to continue from time to time
throughout the day. This will allow highs temperatures to reach the
low to mid 90s there while mid to upper 80s over locations to the
east.

Can`t rule out a light shower or two across the Rio Grande and
Coastal Plains areas through the middle of this afternoon. Then
later this afternoon into early evening, there is the potential for
isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop across the Mexican
mountains and move over parts of the Rio Grande especially over the
central and southern parts of Val Verde County. However, convective
activity could spread to nearby locations along the Rio Grande.
Showers and storms come to an end late this evening. Overnight lows
are forecast to range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

The day on Thursday starts cloudy and muggy for most locations.
Patchy fog is expected for the morning commute for areas along and
east of Highway 83. High temperatures are forecast to reach the
upper 80s to low 90s along and east of Highway 281 with highs in the
mid to upper 90s along the Rio Grande.

As the day progresses, the weather conditions will begin change
around mid to late afternoon as isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms develop over parts of the Rio Grande and Hill Country
as a dry-line sits across west Texas and a cold front slowly pushes
over central Texas. Then, later in the afternoon into the evening
hours, storms are likely to grow in scale with the potential of
becoming strong to severe for portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau, and the Hill Country as several upper level disturbances
travel over central Texas/Hill Country. Main threats with stronger
storms are large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts. Can`t
rule out localized heavy rain over a few spots.

This activity should come to an end by late Thursday night
(midnight). Overnight lows are forecast to range from the low 60s
across the Hill Country to low 70s across the Coastal Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

A cold front will likely be just north of the region beginning early
Friday morning. The southward progress of the front during the
daytime hours remains in question, with most of the models keeping
south central Texas in moist, southeasterly flow in the low-levels.
With plenty of zonal flow aloft to our north and the opportunity for
some lee-side troughing, will keep temperatures on the warm side for
now, with highs in the low/mid 90s along the Rio Grande to the upper
70s/near 80 in the Hill Country where the front may impact
temperatures. Some weak upper disturbances moving in from the west
will bring a low chance for afternoon showers and storms to the Rio
Grande plains and southern Edwards Plateau. Low rain chances will
then spread eastward into the Hill Country Friday night into Saturday
morning as the front should begin a slow southward push. A stronger
southward push of the front is anticipated during the daytime hours
on Saturday as a reinforcing shot of surface high pressure moves
southward through the plains states. The slow moving frontal boundary
along with some continued upper disturbances moving in from the west
will result in increasing rain chances across all areas as we head
into Saturday evening and early Sunday morning. Moisture pooling
along the boundary will send precipitable water values into the
1.5-2" range across a large portion of the region. The setup appears
to favor some locally heavy rainfall during the Saturday evening/
early Sunday morning period, with guidance suggesting the Hill
Country, I-35 corridor mainly from San Antonio northward will be
favored for locally heavy rainfall. Would not be too surprised to see
some 2-3" rainfall amounts along and north of a Fredericksburg to
Austin to Lexington line.

A stronger push of cooler air will bring precipitation chances to an
end on Sunday. With northerly winds and cloud cover, highs will be
below normal, ranging from the lower 60s in the Hill Country to the
mid 70s along the Rio Grande. For the remainder of the forecast
period, expect a slow warming trend along with dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Stratus is re-developing near the I-35 corridor and will expand in
coverage and lower overnight, producing a mix of IFR to LIFR
conditions. Ceilings will gradually rise 14Z-18Z, becoming VFR in
the afternoon. We will be watching for convective initiation to the
north and weThe st of the region after 21Z, along a weak cold front
across central Texas, dryline across the Trans Pecos, and in the higher
terrain of Mexico. Scattered TSRAs to the north are indicated by
several CAMs to work south into the Hill Country after 00Z, but less
certainty on if they make it into the I-35 corridor (AUS/SAT).
Isolated TSRAs to the west in Mexico may attempt to cross the Rio
Grande after 23Z. Due to uncertainty along the I-35 corridor, and
lesser coverage along the Rio Grande, we have went with PROB30 TSRA
groups at AUS/SAT/SSF/DRT for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              90  67  83  66 /  20  20  10  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  89  66  82  66 /  20  20  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  68  85  66 /  10  20  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            89  64  79  64 /  30  30  10  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           98  72  92  71 /  30  10  30  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  65  80  66 /  30  20  10  30
Hondo Muni Airport             93  66  86  66 /  20  20  10  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        90  67  84  66 /  10  20  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   88  69  84  69 /  10  10  10  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       91  68  85  68 /  10  20  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           92  70  86  69 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...76