000
FXUS64 KEWX 182027
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  93  72  94  72 /  -   10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  70  94  70 /  -   10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  93  70  94  70 /  -   10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  92  70  92  70 /  -   10  10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74 100  74 102  75 /  20  10  10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  91  70  92  69 /  -   10  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  96  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  71  91  71 /  -   10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  72  93  75 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  94  73  94  74 /  -   10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  -   10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32