000
FXUS64 KEWX 170159
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
859 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TODAY
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR THIS WEEK.
MAINTAINED TREND OF WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEK. ONGOING FORECASTS ARE ON TRACK WITH
THESE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

AVIATION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THE REGION LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FORM ONLY OVER PARTS THE
COASTAL PLAINS. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 07Z OR 08Z MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE I-35 SITES AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AT ABOUT 16Z AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ACROSS KDRT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AROUND 10Z
AND LASTING TO ABOUT 17Z MONDAY FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 6 TO 11 KNOTS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND
A BIT STRONGER MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE MAIN CATALYST FOR
CONVECTION. DESPITE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE...NOTED MID-LEVEL
WARMING ON THE KDRT SOUNDING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
LIMITED. DRY WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING YIELDS SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT. SOME OF THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE MCS WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...AND POSSIBLY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND WE WILL NOT MENTION ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 90 IN THE HILL COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
REMAIN IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE MID AND UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS WEAK...BUT DOES TRY TO
TRANSITION TO A MORE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF
THE HI-RES MODELS AGAIN SHOW AN ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVING
OUT OF NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WE WILL NOT ADD A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION TO
THE FORECAST AS MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING REMAINS STOUT. THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SUSPECT
ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH
OF THE REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH A DRY AND WARM FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SEA BREEZE INDUCED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND PREFER THE SLIGHTLY WARMER ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL GIVEN PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  76  98  76  97 /  10  -   10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  95  74  97  73  97 /  10  -   10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  74  95  73  96 /  10  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  93  74  94 /  10  -   10  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  76  95  76  96 /  20  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  75  96  75  95 /  10  -   10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  94  73  95 /  10  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  75  95  74  95 /  10  -   -   10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  76  96  76  96 /  10  -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  94  75  95 /  10  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  74  94  74  94 /  10  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17/10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08/24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33