000
FXUS64 KEWX 161138
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
638 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...
ISOLD/SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA TODAY WILL LIKELY NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES AND HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT. AREAS OF MVFR CIGS LIFT TO VFR
AND BECOME SCT BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. S TO SE WINDS UP TO 8 KTS INCREASE TO 8 TO
15 KTS LATE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AND THEN DECREASE TO 10 KTS
OR LESS TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
MORNING CONVECTION IS GETTING UNDERWAY FROM UVALDE TO ROCKSPRINGS
WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES STILL IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH CENTRAL TX. THE RAIN CHARACTER IS DIFFERENT THIS MORNING...
AS THE IMPACT OF UPPER LEVEL STABILITY IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS TO DEVELOP. SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN LATE IN THE
DAY SATURDAY...THE DEEP AND UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY BEHAVING LIKE STREAMER SHOWERS. H5 LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER TODAY WHILE AN H7 LEVEL
DEFORMATION ZONE WORKS TO REDUCE MOISTURE DEPTH. THUS RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO END BY THIS EVENING. AFTER CLOUDS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURBS HEATING OVER WESTERN COUNTIES TODAY...FORECAST
HIGHS FOR MONDAY BEGIN TO SHIFT TOWARD TYPICAL UPPER RIDGE
INFLUENCED TEMPERATURES FOR MID-JUNE...CATCHING UP WITH THE
ALREADY WARM HIGHS SEEN OVER CENTRAL TX AND THE COASTAL PRAIRIES
FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
ELONGATED E-W HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT APPEARS A BIT VULNERABLE
TO SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH TX...AND ANY REMNANT MOISTURE
OVER SOUTH TX COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. RUN-TO-RUN TRENDS IN THE
MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...SO WILL ONLY
ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WHEN A MID-LEVEL
WEAKNESS MOVES ESE ACROSS CENTRAL TX TUESDAY. THIS WOULD APPEAR TO
BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD TO MONITOR FOR THE WEEK...AS THE
STRONG HEATING COULD LEAD TO GOOD DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. WITH LOW
RAIN CHANCES AND LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL NOT FACTOR INTO THE HWO FOR
NOW. LATE IN THE WEEK...A TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING IN THE WRN
CARIBBEAN WAS PREVIOUSLY CONSIDERED A THREAT TO MOVE TOWARD S TX.
THE 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEFLECTING THIS ENERGY
WELL TO THE SOUTH INTO MEXICO...AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN OVER TX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              96  76  96  75  97 /  20  -   10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  95  74  95  73  96 /  20  -   10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  73  94  72  95 /  20  -   -   10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            93  74  93  74  94 /  20  -   10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           93  76  97  75  97 /  30  -   -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        96  74  95  74  95 /  20  -   10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             92  74  95  73  95 /  20  -   -   -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        93  74  93  73  94 /  20  -   -   10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  77  95  76  96 /  20  -   10  10  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       93  75  93  75  94 /  20  -   -   -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  74  92  73  93 /  20  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18