000
FXUS64 KEWX 151149
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
649 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A WEAK DISTURBANCE IS LIFTING NORTH FROM
CENTRAL TX WHILE ANOTHER FOCAL POINT FOR CONVECTION IS PASSING
SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
MORNING TERMINAL SITES WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE REST OF THE MORNING ALTHOUGH SOME CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE
FAR OFF...OR EAST OF A TPL TO VCT LINE. MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS ARE
TRENDING TOWARD MORE STABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE CENTRAL TX
DISTURBANCE. THE STILL WEAK PATTERN OF TROUGHING ALOFT COULD MEAN
A WIDER TIME WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WITH SOME NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE IN A LIGHT NW FLOW PATTERN ALOFT TONIGHT. THUS WILL
FACTOR IN ENOUGH CAPPING TO LEAVE OUT THE MENTION OF CONVECTION
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TAF PERIODS DESPITE AN EXPECTED
COVERAGE OF UP TO 30 PERCENT. AS LOW-TO-MID LEVEL STABILITY
INCREASES THIS EVENING LOW CIGS SHOULD START AS MVFR LATE THIS
EVENING AND LOWER TO IFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ON
WINDS...PREFER THE SLOWER SPEEDS OF THE NAM GUIDANCE TO REFLECT A
BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER NW TX AS THE AREA REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE
WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENTLY...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MAINLY WHERE
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW THIS MORNING. FOR THIS AFTERNOON... WE
EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING AND
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER LOW APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS CAN/T BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. WE WILL
GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THURSDAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRY WEATHER AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATES TEXAS. ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THIS
COULD AID IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE HILL COUNTRY AND I-35 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO
TEXAS. FOR NOW...THIS FRONT LOOKS WEAK AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  69  88  71  94 /  60  20  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  81  67  87  70  93 /  60  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     83  68  89  69  94 /  60  20  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            82  67  88  69  94 /  50  20  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           92  71 103  73 104 /  20  10  -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  67  85  69  92 /  60  20  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  69  95  69  96 /  40  10  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        81  68  87  70  92 /  60  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   82  70  86  73  91 /  60  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       82  70  90  71  94 /  50  10  -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  70  90  70  94 /  50  10  -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24