000
FXUS64 KEWX 181742
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1242 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
MORNING CLOUDS HAVE BURNED OFF AND FLYING CATEGORY WILL BE VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WATCHING AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING OUT OF MEXICO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH CIG WILL AT DRT
FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH CIGS FARTHER EAST THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MODERATE AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON 15G25
KTS. IFR CIGS WITH MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT AUS...SAT...AND SSF. BACK
TO VFR LATE MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

UPDATE...
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND BROUGHT
THE ISOLATED STORMS FARTHER EAST INTO THE WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS
WELL. OTHERWISE EARLY MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
HOT PATTERN TO CONTINUE ANOTHER DAY WITH MORE NEAR RECORD HIGHS.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
TROPICAL PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO A SLOW TREND OF MODERATING TEMPS.
MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE DRYLINE AND
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...BUT THE SHARPER INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
HOT AND DRY AIR AND THE DEEP LOW-TO-MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE ANY STRONG STORM
THREATS IN THE HWO FOR THE LACK OF EXPECTED COVERAGE. TROUGHING TO
DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN US WILL NOT SHOW MUCH OF AN IMPACT TO SOUTH
CENTRAL TX THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SHIFTING DRY-LINE WELL MIXED TO PRECLUDE THE SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DRY-
LINE FOR LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ISOLATED POPS ARE CONTINUED
TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE TRIGGERING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
SW AND AN INCREASING MOISTURE TAP FROM THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC...AIDED BY THE BROAD AND SLOW MOVING TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPS SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW DOWNWARD
TREND BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMALS AS AFTERNOON MIXING BRINGS DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SW. BY TUESDAY...THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF I-35 OVER NE TX AND COULD SET UP
A MORE PRODUCTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR NW FLOW THUNDERSTORMS. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO N TX...SO THE
CONVECTION SHOULD BE FURTHER ENHANCED FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION AND
MODIFIED TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH
A SHORTWAVE RIDGE TO BRING A QUICK RETURN TO STABILITY FOR LATE
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGING TO BE DIRTY TO ALLOW FOR
AIR MASS STORMS TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT WITHOUT A
SPECIFIC FOCUS OR MOISTURE TAP TO HIGHLIGHT DURING THIS
PERIOD...WILL STICK WITH A CONSERVATIVE FORECAST FOR SILENT 10
POPS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 5/18
ATT  97/1925
AUS  94/2003 AND OTHER YEARS
SAT  97/1989 AND OTHER YEARS
DRT 103/2003 AND OTHER YEARS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  93  72  94  72 /  -   10  10  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  70  92  70  94  70 /  -   10  10  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     70  93  70  94  70 /  -   10  10  -   10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  92  70  92  70 /  -   10  10  -   20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74 100  74 102  75 /  20  10  10  -   20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  91  70  92  69 /  -   10  10  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  96  71  96  72 /  10  10  10  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  71  91  71 /  -   10  10  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   72  92  72  93  75 /  -   10  10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  94  73  94  74 /  -   10  10  -   10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  94  73  94  73 /  -   10  10  -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...32