000
FXUS64 KEWX 201748
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1248 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

.AVIATION...
STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY. CLOUDS
HAVE BURNED OFF FOR TODAY AND CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
HAS LOOSENED SLIGHTLY AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
LESS GUSTY...BUT STILL AROUND 15 KTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL RETURN TO
THE I35 AIRPORTS TONIGHT AROUND 05Z. MOISTURE WILL MOVE FARTHER
WEST TUESDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CIG AT DRT BY AROUND 12Z.
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
SUBSIDENT WESTERLIES ALOFT WILL KEEP GULF MOISTURE CAPPED TODAY. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN LIFTING BY LATE MORNING WITH DIURNAL HEATING BECOMING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AREA-WIDE. DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS AGAIN
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK. THE CONTINUED GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE LOWER 90S WILL PREVAIL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CAP WILL KEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING BUT
FURTHER NORTH OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...LOWERED HEIGHTS FROM SLIGHT
COOLING ALOFT AND A DRY LINE FOCUS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SPUR DEVELOPMENT WITH THE UPPER WINDS BRINGING POTENTIAL
STORMS INTO THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE AFTERNOON. LATE AFTERNOON
PROGNOSTIC SOUNDINGS IN THE HILL COUNTRY SHOW CAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG
WITH VERY LITTLE CAP. SUBSEQUENTLY WE WILL MENTION A LOW CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE HILL COUNTRY. THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW
MEXICO WILL ENHANCE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT WHICH MAY AID IN DEVELOPMENT OF LATE EVENING TO EARLY
MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS SLIDING A COLD FRONT INTO OUR NORTHWEST CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. VERY UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
(PROG SOUNDINGS INDICATED 4000 J/KG. CAPES) SO CAN CERTAINLY SEE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY BY LATE IN THE DAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CONTINUED UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. STORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS DISTURBANCES PUSH EAST. UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN
BUILDING OVER THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGING
FROM NEAR 90 OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EASTERN PORTIONS TO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS. AS RIDGING
DRIES THE AIR-MASS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS...SLIGHTLY COOLER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...NEAR 70 ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND GULF MOISTURE FOR OUR REGION. LATE NIGHT AND
MORNING LOW CLOUDS BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS WILL BE THE
PATTERN. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S HILL COUNTRY...UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 I-35 CORRIDOR TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIGHS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO NEAR 90 HILL COUNTRY...LOW 90S I-35 CORRIDOR AND MID TO UPPER
90S ELSEWHERE. THERE MAY BE A FEW SEA BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS WHICH
MAY MOVE NORTH INTO OUR EASTERN SECTIONS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT WILL NOW GO WITH SILENT 10 PERCENT POPS DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY OF ENOUGH COASTAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GFS MODEL
WANTS TO CONTINUE BUILDING THE RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS
TEXAS NEXT SUNDAY WITH A CONTINUED WARM...DRY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  93  72  92  71 /  10  20  40  -   10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  91  71  91  69 /  10  20  40  -   10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  93  71  92  69 /  10  20  40  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            69  90  68  90  69 /  20  20  40  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  99  74  98  74 /  20  10  20  -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        70  89  70  89  69 /  10  20  40  -   10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  96  71  95  71 /  10  10  30  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  90  72  90  70 /  10  20  40  -   10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  75  90  73 /  10  20  30  20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  93  72  92  71 /  10  20  40  10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  93  72  91  71 /  10  10  30  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...31