000
FXUS64 KEWX 150426
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1126 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 06Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY
MORNING AND TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING. CIGS OF 1 THSD TO
2 THSD FT BKN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT.  SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND WEST
OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO CATARINA...WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA ARE EXPECTED EAST OF A MOUNTAIN HOME TO CATARINA
LINE. AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...CIGS OF 2 THSD TO 4 THSD BKN ARE
EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA BECOMING SCT CLOUDS AT 4 THSD
TO 6 THSD FT...WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ABOVE 25 THSD FT AFTER 18Z.
ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AFTER 05Z...AROUND
1000 TO 2500 FT BKN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

UPDATE...
TO CANCEL PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

DISCUSSION...
HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST AND FLASH FLOODING IS NO
LONGER EXPECTED FROM KERR TO FRIO COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT THE REST OF
THE WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
REDEVELOPED ACROSS UVALDE AND MAVERICK COUNTIES. AFTER SIGNIFICANT
RAIN OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS ANY ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WILL
QUICKLY RUNOFF LEADING TO FLOODING. ANOTHER ONE TO TWO INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO THREE INCHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

UPDATE...
PRECIP MOVING EAST.

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO IS STARTING TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
AND THIS IS PUSHING THE PRECIP TOWARD THE EAST. EXPECT THIS TREND
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EVENING AND HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT
THIS. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE ON THE DECREASE WITH
STILL AN AREA OF ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ATASCOSA COUNTY. HAVE
MOVED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THIS AREA AND LEFT
MODERATE RAIN ELSEWHERE. WILL LET THE WATCH RUN FOR THE TIME BEING
AND RE-EVALUATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND EARLY
THIS EVENING WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TO NORTHEAST TOWARD NORTH TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ARKANSAS AND MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. THROUGH 05Z SCT CLOUDS AT 2 THSD TO 5 THSD FT WITH
CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD FT WILL CONTINUE...ALONG WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA...BECOMING CIGS NEAR 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT BKN AROUND AND AFTER
05Z...WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA. AFTER 15Z SATURDAY...CIGS
OF 2 THSD TO 4 THSD BKN ARE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
BECOMING SCT CLOUDS AT 4 THSD TO 6 THSD FT WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
ABOVE 25 THSD FT AFTER 18Z. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA AND TSRA ARE
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT
AFTER 05Z...AROUND 1000 TO 2500 FT BKN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW
IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR WEST TX/NORTHERN MEXICO. SMALLER... MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATIONS INDUCED BY EARLIER CONVECTION ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
UPPER LOW. ONE FEATURE HAS NOW MOVED NORTH INTO NORTHERN VAL VERDE
COUNTY... WITH ANOTHER LOCATED WEST OF LAREDO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS INTACT WITH PWAT/S AROUND 2" ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS...
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW SOME CLEARING TAKING PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THIS
COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND ADDITIONAL EXPECTED
PRECIPITATION... WE HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS... EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH OF THE AREA. CAN/T
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION GIVEN GOOD SURFACE HEATING AND WE
HAVE ADDED A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY REMAINS
WEST OF THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
SUGGEST A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LLANO TO LA GRANGE LINE.
OTHERWISE...THE ABOVE MENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK...LIKELY RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              76  96  74  95  74 /  20  20  10  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  95  73  95  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     73  93  72  93  71 /  40  20  10  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  92  72  93  73 /  30  30  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  94  76  95  76 /  60  30  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  95  73  94  73 /  20  30  10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             73  93  73  94  72 /  60  20  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  92  72  92  72 /  20  20  10  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   77  95  76  94  76 /  10  30  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  92  74  92  74 /  60  20  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           73  91  73  92  72 /  60  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: DIMMIT...EDWARDS...KINNEY...MAVERICK...REAL...UVALDE...
VAL VERDE...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33