000
FXUS64 KEWX 151144
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
644 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WITH SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST TODAY. AREAS OF IFR/MVFR CIGS
LIFT TO VFR LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EVENING...EXCEPT
LOCAL MVFR CIGS IN SHRA/TSRA. IFR/MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT
AND LIFT TO VFR BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION AT TAF
SITES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING. S TO SE WINDS AT
4 TO 14 KTS WILL PREVAIL. GUSTS TO 40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR
SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

UPDATE...
FFA UPDATED...EXTENDED...AND EXPANDED AS PLANNED. THE EASTWARD
EXTENT WAS LARGELY DECIDED BY THE 15/00Z NMM EAST RUN AND THE
PRESENCE OF LARGE AREAS OF 2-DAY STORM TOTALS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES OVER THE AREAS WEST OF A FREDERICKSBURG TO SAN ANTONIO TO
CAMPBELLTON LINE. THE 06Z RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
QPF AS THEY HAVE THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENT...BUT STILL SHOW A
SIGNIFICANT MID-LEVEL SHEAR AND HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2
INCHES THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
AFTER TRAINING PATTERN OF TROPICAL RAINS TOOK AIM ON THE CITY OF
EAGLE PASS OVERNIGHT...RADAR TRENDS SHOW AN EXPANSION OF ECHOES TO
BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THAT IS SHIFTING MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST. THE HI-RES NMM SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST
CORRELATION WITH THE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS...AND THE DISTURBING
TREND IS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE SUGGESTED TO DEVELOP
FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE SAT METRO AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK BY THE
NMM WEST FROM THE 14/06 WEST VERSION AND FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE 15/00Z EAST VERSION. WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES OF 1.8
TO 2 INCHES DEPICTED BY THE COARSER NAM/GFS RUNS FOR TODAY...A
FFA EXTENSION AND EXPANSION IS PLANNED FOR ISSUANCE BETWEEN 5 AND
6 AM...WITH THE VALID TIME PROBABLY TO RUN THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
WILL AWAIT MORE ANALYSIS OF 06Z RUNS AND SOME OTHER HI RES OUTPUT
BEFORE DECIDING THE EASTWARD EXTENT AND THE EXPIRATION TIME. WILL
ALSO EXPECT SOME OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME
CLEARING THE AREA AFTER THE CONSENSUS OF MODELS LIFT THE BULK OF
THE DYNAMIC ENERGY TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME...ANOTHER
LATE NIGHT WARM CORE HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT
AS MOST OF THE COARSER MODEL DATA BRINGS 500 HPA SUBSIDENCE INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE
HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY PERSISTENCE TODAY...WITH A SHIFT TOWARD THE
MOS GUIDANCES FOR SUNDAY.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC
SHEAR AT AROUND 10 KFT SUNDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH
ON A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO DROP INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TX
TO ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BY
WEDNESDAY...A MORE STABLE AND SEASONAL LATE SPRING PATTERN IS
EXPECTED AS PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO LOWER. TEMPERATURES FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD FINALLY OVERCOME THE CLOUDS
AND MOISTURE TO CATCH UP WITH THE DRIER NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES FOR
SEASONAL MID-JUNE HEAT. THE NEXT WEATHER FEATURE TO WATCH FOR IS A
TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN WELL HANDLED BY SEVERAL PAST RUNS OF
THE ECMWF AND THE GFS. THUS SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ARE INCLUDED FOR
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  75  95  75  95 /  40  20  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  74  94  73  95 /  40  20  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     88  73  93  73  94 /  40  20  20  10  -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  73  92  74  93 /  50  30  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           87  75  93  76  96 /  70  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        94  73  94  74  94 /  40  30  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             85  73  93  74  94 /  70  30  20  10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  73  92  73  93 /  40  20  20  10  -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   95  77  94  76  95 /  30  20  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       87  75  93  75  93 /  60  30  20  10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           86  75  92  74  93 /  60  30  20  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:
ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BEXAR...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FRIO...GILLESPIE...
KENDALL...KERR...KINNEY...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...UVALDE...VAL
VERDE...ZAVALA.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18