000
FXUS64 KEWX 160013 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
713 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE HI-RES ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS...HAVE
LIMITED THE MENTION OF SEVERE TSTMS TO OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MAY SEEN AN MCS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT
THE CONVECTION WITH THE MCS WILL BE BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

AVIATION...
A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE OVER THE TRANS PECOS MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS TONIGHT. ISOLD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA OVER WESTERN TEXAS MAY
ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BEST CHANCE FOR IMPACT AT TAF
SITE IS AT KAUS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF TAF AS CURRENTLY EXPECT
THEM TO NOT BE IN THE VCNTY. HOWEVER...WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR POSSIBLE LATER MENTION. OTHERWISE...VFR SKIES THIS EVENING
BECOME MVFR LATE EVENING AND THEN IFR OVERNIGHT AS STRATUS
DEVELOPS AND CIGS LOWER. MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS THE RIO GRANDE.
ALTHOUGH...ONLY MENTION SCT STRATUS AT KDRT. CIGS LIFT WITH SKIES
BECOMING VFR LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. S TO SE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS THIS EVENING WILL DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
AND THEN INCREASE TO 14 TO 18 KTS ON THURSDAY. EXCEPT A DRYLINE
MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA...INCLUDING
KDRT LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO AFTERNOON TURNING WINDS TO W TO
NW. WIND GUSTS TO 50 KTS AND GS/GR ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
MESO TRENDS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON
SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING TODAY...FORECAST SOLUTIONS SHOW THE FINAL WAVE OF S/W
ENERGY MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS...
SOUTH OF THE 500 HPA LOW OVER OKLAHOMA. THIS PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER
IN THE DAY TO THE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN FROM
FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND CURRENT TRENDS ARE INDICATED TO BE OVER THE
NORTH PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF IH35...OVER THE
NORTH TO WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AS INDICATED BY THE
LATEST CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WITH SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST TO EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING ON THURSDAY...AS THE
500 HPA LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE 500 HPA LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE
WEST PART OF MISSOURI...ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST. EVEN
THOUGH RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS...THE WEAK WIND PATTEN WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN
CASE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY LINGERS OVER THE NORTHEAST OR EAST
PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY...AND IS NOT CARRIED AWAY TO
THE EAST. MOST FORECAST SOLUTIONS SINCE THE PAST WEEKEND THROUGH
THIS MORNING SUPPORT INCREASING HEIGHTS FOR THURSDAY...THEREFORE...
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS FOR FRIDAY...SHOWING A CONTINUED TREND OF WARM DAYTIME
HIGHS FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL
WAVES OF S/W ENERGY MOVING NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT OVER THE AREA COULD WEAKEN ENOUGH BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER
THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...OVER THE HILL COUNTRY
TO ADJACENT PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS...ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO THE SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD.

IN THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK...THE STORM TRACK IS
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM AFTERNOONS...HOWEVER THIS
TYPE OF MID TO LATE MAY PROCESS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY
S/W ENERGY THAT COULD MOVE CLOSER TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTH
OF A LOW...THAT MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST TOOLS SHOW TO BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. FOR NOW...SHOWED A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FAST
MOVING S/W TROF MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TOWARD THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. FOR WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              67  90  72  94  72 /  30  10  -   -    0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  90  71  93  71 /  30  10  -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  90  70  94  72 /  30  10  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  89  70  94  71 /  40  10  10  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69 103  73 104  73 /  20  -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        66  86  70  92  70 /  40  20  10  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             69  96  70  96  71 /  20  -   -   -    0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  90  70  92  71 /  30  10  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  86  73  91  72 /  30  10  10  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  91  72  94  73 /  30  10  -   -    0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  92  72  94  72 /  20  10  -   -    0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...13
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30