000
FXUS64 KEWX 150432 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EXTENDED FROM THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. THE MCS WAS
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE I-35 TERMINALS WITH THE THREAT FOR
TSTMS COMING TO AN END AT KDRT. THE TIMING FOR TSTMS AT THE I-35
TERMINALS STILL LOOKS GOOD...THUS NO CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF
PACKAGE. ONCE THE MCS CLEARS THE I-35 TERMINALS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
AND WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH A PROB30 GROUP. MVFR CIGS RETURN TO
THE I-35 TERMINALS AROUND 06/06Z AS S TO SE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

UPDATE...
GIVEN CURRENT MOVEMENT OF MCS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO (EAST ABOUT 30
MPH)...WILL ELIMINATE CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT POPS ROUGHLY EAST OF
STATE HIGHWAY 281 BEFORE 1 AM. ALSO MATCHED SPC`S AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK SEVERE. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS MCS TO BE RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME
WITH CAPES GENERALLY BELOW 1000 J/KG AND SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES (IN THE 70S AT 8 PM ALONG THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS) AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUE LOWERING BUT
COUNTERED SOMEWHAT BY INCREASING DEWPOINTS. WILL CONTINUE A
SCENARIO OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND MID RIO GRANDE PLAINS MAINLY
FROM NOW TIL EARLY MORNING. UPDATED FORECAST ALREADY OUT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR THE 00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS EVENING ARE THE TIMING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND RETURN FLOW STRATUS. THE 12Z HI-RES ARW AND NMM ALONG WITH THE
18Z TTU 3KM WRF SHOW GOOD CONSENSUS WITH CONVECTION WEST OF THE
PECOS EVOLVING INTO A NOCTURNAL MCS. THE MCS WILL TRACK EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NOCTURNAL MCS` OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TYPICALLY DISRUPT THE
PREVAILING S TO SE LOW LEVEL LOW...SO TIMING OF RETURN FLOW
STRATUS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. WE WILL USE THE HI-RES CONSENSUS
FCST TO TIME TSTMS AT THE TAF SITES. THE 12Z CIRA WRF SIMULATED
LOW CLOUD PRODUCT ALSO DOES A GOOD JOB DEPICTING THE DISRUPTED
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND THIS WILL BE THE BASIS OF THE STRATUS FCST.

THE I-35 TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BY 14Z AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 18Z. BEST TIME FOR TSTMS TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS WILL
BE BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT S TO SE AT 5 TO 10
KTS WITH CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS OF 30 KTS POSSIBLE.

KDRT TERMINAL...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR TSTMS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
BY 08Z AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE MCS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
18Z. THE BEST TIME FOR CONVECTION TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL WILL BE
BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. SFC WINDS OVERNIGHT SE AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
CONVECTIVE WINDS GUSTS OF 40 KTS POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SPREAD ACROSS WRN TEXAS INTO NRN MEXICO
HAS ENABLED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE BIG BEND REGION WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXTENDING INTO THE
SERRANIAS DEL BURRO IN COAHUILA/MX. THESE STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO INTENSIFY
AS THEY ENCOUNTER THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU/RIO GRANDE PLAINS/WRN HILL COUNTRY. WARM SFC TEMPS...RICH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...AND WEAK UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE TROUGH AXIS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND ADJACENT AREAS.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. STORM
INTENSITY WILL WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BRING
RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR LESS...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED 1-2 INCH TOTAL AS SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.

HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP
INTO A BETTER ORGANIZED SYSTEM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MOVE
TOWARD THE I-35 CORRIDOR BEFORE SUNRISE. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL
SHIFT TO AREAS EAST OF I-35 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE MIX
OF CLOUD COVER/RAIN. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION...BUT WILL REACH INTO
THE LOW 90S ALONG THE RIO GRANDE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ONCE THE UPPER LOW MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT WARM AND MOIST AIR
REMAINS AFFIXED ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TYPICAL LATE
SPRING PATTERN OF CLOUDY/HUMID NIGHTS AND WARM/MOSTLY SUNNY
AFTERNOONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD READINGS IN
THE LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY (AGAIN NEAR 100 ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE) AND WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTH TEXAS AND HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST BEYOND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  82  69  88  71 /  50  60  20  10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  66  81  67  86  70 /  50  60  20  10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  83  68  88  71 /  60  60  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  81  67  88  69 /  50  50  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           68  92  71 101  73 /  50  10  10  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        67  81  67  85  70 /  40  60  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             68  86  69  94  70 /  60  40  10  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  81  68  86  70 /  50  60  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  81  69  87  72 /  30  60  20  -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       68  82  70  89  71 /  60  50  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  82  69  89  70 /  60  50  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...13
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...02