000
FXUS64 KEWX 161145
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
645 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.UPDATE...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG I-35 WILL KEEP MOST TAF SITES IN
MVFR CIGS...ALTHOUGH AREAS TO THE WEST OF AUS AND SAT/SSF WILL SEE
IFR CIGS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LIGHTER WINDS AT DRT WILL
ENABLE A FEW HOURS OF IFR...THEN A SWITCH OF LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND NOON. GOOD MIXING AND HEATING WITH
DOWNSPLOPING WINDS OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES SHOULD SLOW DOWN THE
RETURN OF LOW CIGS THIS EVENING...BUT AREAS TO THE EAST MAY SEE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND THE RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE FOR FRIDAY
MORNING COULD PROMOTE A HIGHER COVERAGE OF IFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONVECTION ACROSS WILLIAMSON COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN
WHILE MOVING EAST THIS MORNING. GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS MORNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#162 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. EARLIER STORMS
HAVE SENT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AND THIS
ALONG WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY ALLOW AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND MOST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING... WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BURNET TO LA GRANGE
LINE GIVEN CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRY CONDITIONS AND
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMEST
READINGS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100 DEGREES. MORE
OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
DRYLINE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. WE STILL EXPECT DAYTIME
HIGHS NEAR 100 DEGREES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH MAINLY 90S FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO REMAIN MILD
GIVEN CONTINUED SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DOES MOVE INTO NORTHERN TEXAS ON SUNDAY
AND THIS COULD AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS LLANO...BURNET
AND WILLIAMSON COUNTIES. WE/LL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              91  72  96  71  93 /  10  -   -   -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  91  71  95  70  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     91  70  95  70  93 /  10  -   -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  70  96  70  92 /  20  -   -   -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          104  72 104  74  98 /  -    0  -   -   10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        88  70  95  69  92 /  20  -   -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  70  98  70  94 /  -    0  -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        90  70  94  70  92 /  10  -   -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   88  73  93  73  91 /  10  10  -   -   -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       92  71  95  72  92 /  -   -   -   -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           93  71  94  71  92 /  -   -   -   -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...18
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24