000
FXUS64 KEWX 182315 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
615 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

.AVIATION...
AN UPPER TROUGH SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST CYCLE WITH WINDS SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS
AND GUSTING UP TO 25 KNOTS...THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AND ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT OR ABOUT 10Z THROUGH 14Z
SUNDAY ALONG THE I35 TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
BY 17Z SUNDAY. KDRT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION MOVING NEWD ACROSS S CENTRAL TX THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HIGH CLOUDINESS FROM THE PACIFIC KEEPING
TEMPERATURES DOWN 5-10 DEGREES OVER THIS TIME FRIDAY. BROAD UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL KEEP
A SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS S TX. SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IN THE SWLY
FLOW WILL TRACK ACROSS W/SW TX ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTH TEXAS...SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON THE SRN EDGE OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION.
THEREFORE ONLY EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE HILL COUNTRY
AND ALONG THE DRY LINE OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. OTHERWISE CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY WARM SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THE PACIFIC MOISTURE/CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SHY OF RECORD HIGHS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
LITTLE CHANGE FOR MONDAY FROM SUNDAY. BY TUESDAY CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INCREASE DUE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING INTO WEST TX
AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT INTO CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE SOME SPOTTY HEAVIER QPF
AMOUNTS WITH THE SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL
FLOW PARALLELS THE STALLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS FAIRLY SHALLOW SO EXPECTING AVERAGE QPF AMOUNTS TO BE
FAIRLY MEAGER AT A QUARTER INCH OR LESS. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED THE DRYING TREND
FOR THU-FRI-SAT OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND PROBABILITY OF A FEW AIRMASS DAYTIME STORMS WILL BE TOO
LOW TO MENTION. HAVE TRENDED WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  94  73  94  72 /  -   10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  71  93  71  93  71 /  -   10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     71  94  71  94  71 /  -   10  10  10  10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            71  92  71  92  69 /  -   10  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76 102  75 102  75 /  10  10  10  10  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  91  71  91  69 /  -   10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             71  97  71  97  72 /  -   10  -   10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        72  93  72  93  72 /  -   10  10  10  10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  92  75  92  75 /  10  10  -   10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       72  94  72  94  72 /  -   10  -   10  10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           72  94  72  93  73 /  -   10  -   10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...04
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33