000
FXUS64 KEWX 250448
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS BELOW 2 KFT HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THE STRATUS DECK WILL SPREAD WEST TO KDRT
OVERNIGHT. MOIST LOW LEVELS AND WET SOILS WILL HELP CIG BASES
LOWER OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CIGS ANTICIPATED AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF IN THE
NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BRIEF -SHRA
IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT KAUS/KSAT/KSSF...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS
WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED AROUND 18Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS SCENARIO
WITH PROB30 GROUPS DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS DUE TO
TIMING/LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CONTINUED TRENDS WITH ONGOING FORECASTS...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SHORT TERM MESO SCALE TRENDS SINCE THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
FOR WEATHER PATTERNS FOR SATURDAY...BASED ON 18Z FORECAST DATA...
SOME OF THE 00Z FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND THE 00Z FORECAST MAPS.
THE 500 HPA LOW THAT WAS NEAR DEL RIO EARLY THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED TO CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING AND IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...LEAVING
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
ON SATURDAY.  THIS WILL ALLOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP AGAIN AS EARLY AS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY OR DURING THE DAYTIME ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

FORECAST SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL ALLOW MORE STABLE CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP FROM THE
WEST...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. ANOTHER 500 HPA TROF WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE AREA WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...AND COULD BRING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AGAIN OVER THE WEST PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND THEN OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TODAY BROUGHT SOME RELIEF FROM THE DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA SINCE OCTOBER 2012. ALTHOUGH THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SO FAR TODAY WERE NOT DAILY RECORDS FOR MAY 24TH...THEY ARE LISTED
BELOW COMPARED TO THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAY 24TH.

LOCATION           MAY 24...2013     MAY 24TH DAILY
                  RAIN AS OF 9 PM    RECORD RAINFALL

AUSTIN MABRY           3.30         4.00 MAY 24...1908
AUSTIN BERGSTROM       3.13         3.88 MAY 24...1981
DEL RIO                0.80         7.12 MAY 24...2010
SAN ANTONIO            2.33         2.76 MAY 24...1908

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

AVIATION...
THE AXIS OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DECREASING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING. A WINDOW OF VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
TROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MVFR STRATUS RETURNING TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR TAF SITES BY 04-05Z AND SPREADING WEST TO KDRT
OVERNIGHT. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WET GROUNDS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS AS WELL AS PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KAUS...IN THE NEAR-DAYBREAK HOURS. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE
AND CONFIDENCE IS ONLY FAIR...SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. SFC WINDS WILL BE SERLY NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS AT I-35 TAF SITES
AND 15 TO 20 KTS AT KDRT SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
THIS AFTERNOON THE MCV WAS CENTERED OVER REAL COUNTY DRIFTING NORTHWARD.
AN ASSOCIATED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM BURNET
SOUTHWARD TO NEW BRAUNFELS AND CAMPBELLTON. THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY
EAST WHILE THE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS IS LEADING
TO CELL TRAINING RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THRU THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING
INTERACTS WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES. STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS OF
30 TO 40 MPH WERE ALSO OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE LINE. THE SLOW
MOVING LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS ON SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO OUR RAIN CHANCES. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF A WESTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROF. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              68  90  72  93  72 /  30  40  20  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  67  90  70  91  71 /  30  40  20  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     68  90  71  93  72 /  30  30  20  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            66  87  69  90  70 /  30  30  20  -   -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           70  91  74  94  74 /  30  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  87  70  90  71 /  30  40  20  -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  92  72  93  72 /  30  30  20  -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        68  90  71  92  72 /  30  40  20  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   71  88  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  90  73  92  73 /  30  30  20  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           69  90  72  92  73 /  30  30  20  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...25
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...08