000
FXUS64 KEWX 191132
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS OVER THE I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINALS UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN AND LIFT CIGS TO VFR CLOUDINESS. MVFR CIGS WILL
REDEVELOP ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR TERMINALS AFTER MIDNIGHT. I-35
CORRIDOR TERMINAL WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS UNTIL LATE
MORNING BECOMING SOUTH 15 TO 25 KTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
LESSEN AFTER DARK TO 10 TO 15 KTS. KDRT TERMINAL VFR CLOUDS AOA 10
THSD AGL, KDRT TERMINAL WINDS SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LEADING
SHORTWAVE AS PART OF A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
US HAS TRENDED DEEPER AND EHNANCED THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER W
TX. THIS TREND DOES NOT APPEAR TO SHOW MUCH IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER...A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE NORTHERN MEXICO TOWARD THE RIO GRANDE WOULD GO UNNOTICED IF
NOT FOR AN ISOLATED BATCH OF STORMS THAT FORMED OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE FEATURE APPEARS WEAK ENOUGH TO LEAVE UNACCOUNTED FOR
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE
UPDATE TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
COUNTIES.

MODEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN THE DRY LAYER TO THE WEST ARE
CONSISTENT WITH THOSE OF SATURDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH MORE
TRIPLE DIGITS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE AND NEAR PERSISTENCE HIGHS IN
THE LOW-MID 90S FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEING REDUCED IN PART FROM THE DRY SLOT...POPS ARE LEFT AS SILENT
10S FOR THIS EVENING. ALOFT...THE TAP TO THE PACIFIC TROPICS IS
ONLY TEMPORARILY BROKEN...AND SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE DRY-LINE IN TIME FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SLOWLY IN THE ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
MONDAY NIGHT CONVECTION IS LEFT AS AN EVENING EVENT FOR NOW...BUT
THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH INTO NW TX COULD PRESENT SOME
ADDED LIFT TO EXTEND THE CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
CONNECT WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE DRY SLOT COULD BECOME A FACTOR...GIVEN THE SHALLOW BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...SO THE POPS ARE MOSTLY LOW CHANCE TO REFLECT
CONTINUED POOR CONFIDENCE. THIS FORECAST PERIOD SHOWS THE ONLY
PATTERN THAT MODELS SHOW A GOOD CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND
A POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT TO PROVIDE A FOCUS. BETTER RAIN CHANCES AND
DYNAMICS ALOFT FAVOR BETTER RAIN CHANCES OVER EAST TX AND TAPERING
OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. WITH NOT A
GREAT SIGNAL ON DIURNAL TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WOULD ONLY
SUGGEST THAT THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LEVELS AND COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. RUN-TO-RUN
MODEL TRENDS HAVE NOT BEEN FAVORABLE FOR A GOOD RAIN EVENT. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND IS ALSO
PESSIMISTIC IN TERMS OF RAIN CHANCE. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
TOWARD A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER TX WITH DECREASING AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE OVER TX...AND MORE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              93  73  93  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  92  72  91  72  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     93  72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            91  71  91  70  90 /  10  10  10  10  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT          101  73 101  74  99 /  10  10  20  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        89  71  90  70  90 /  10  10  10  10  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             97  72  97  72  96 /  10  10  10  10  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        91  72  90  73  91 /  10  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   91  73  91  76  92 /  10  10  -   -   20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       94  74  93  74  94 /  10  10  10  10  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           95  73  94  74  93 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...02
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...18