000
FXUS64 KEWX 180244 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
944 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
A CLUSTER OF STORMS/MCS FORMED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING WITH ONE OF THEM PASSING
OVER SAN ANGELO WITHIN THE NEXT FEW MINUTES. CURRENT WEATHER FORECAST
ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO AFFECT PARTS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HILL
COUNTRY LATE THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. MADE
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WEATHER GRIDS AND SKY CONDITIONS FOR FIRST PERIOD.
NEW UPDATED ZONES OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH SCT CU AT 5-7 THSD FEET WITH
SCT-BKN CIRRUS ABOVE AND SLY SFC WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS. AFTER 06Z
MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS INTO THE I35
CORRIDOR AND SPREADING INTO THE HILL COUNTRY. ONGOING SHRA/TSRA IN
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...MOVING SOUTHWARD HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND RESULT IN ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL TX OVERNIGHT. THE LINGERING BOUNDARY COULD
ALSO RESULT IN A FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEATING. HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED CB IN THE CLOUD GROUP FOR KAUS AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
NOW. CONVECTION IN WEST TX IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TX. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING
WILL LIFT AND SCT TO VFR MOST AREAS BY 16-17Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AN EARLY MORNING MCS THAT ROLLED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS HAS MANAGED TO
PUSH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME CU DEVELOPMENT IS
NOTED ACROSS BURNET...WILLIAMSON AND LEE COUNTIES IN PROXIMITY TO
THE BOUNDARY. WE WILL MENTION AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED DUE TO WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION
OVER THE LOWER TRANS PECOS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF VAL VERDE COUNTY. WE WILL MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREA. LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...THE LATEST GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS WESTERN TEXAS
INTO CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WE/LL MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A DEL RIO TO
AUSTIN LINE. IF THE HI-RES MODELS VERIFY...RAIN CHANCES WILL NEED TO
BE PUSHED FARTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION MANAGES TO SEND
ANOTHER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN OVER TEXAS FROM
MID-WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND
WARM WITH THIS PATTERN INTACT. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS SEA BREEZE CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE.
ANY TROPICAL ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT RIDGING ALOFT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  99  76  99  77 /  10  20  10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  76  98  75  98  75 /  10  20  10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            75  95  74  95  74 /  20  20  20  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  95  76  95  76 /  -   -   -   -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  96  74  96  75 /  20  20  20  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  96  75  95  75 /  -   -   -   -   -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  97  76  97  76 /  10  20  10  10  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  96  76  96  76 /  -   10  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  96  75  96  75 /  -   -   10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33