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000
FXUS64 KEWX 131520 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1020 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.UPDATE...
LATEST VISIBLE PHOTOS ARE SHOWING SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FROM YESTERDAY CONVECTION OVER THE MEXICAN SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL. SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE CONTROL
THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS MOST AREAS. EARLY MORNING
FORECAST PACKAGE IS ON TRACK FOR REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

UPDATE...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE MAY ALLOW SOME BRIEF MVFR FOG TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. KAUS SEEMS MOST LIKELY FOR FOG...SO A TEMPO
GROUP FOR BR HAS BEEN INCLUDED THROUGH 15Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AS WINDS BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT. SOME MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP AFTER 14/08Z ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS BUILT OVER TEXAS FROM THE GULF AS A
LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE A BROAD AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SURFACE FLOW
IS WEAK AND ILL DEFINED THIS MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS
DRIFTED FAR ENOUGH TO THE WEST THAT IT IS HAVING LESS EFFECT ON
OUR WEATHER. NOT EXPECTING ANY MORE PRECIP TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH
SHOULD BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER
DEW POINTS TO THE REGION. EXPECTING OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS TO RETURN
TONIGHT. TUESDAY THE MID TO UPPER LOW OVER MEXICO WILL BEGIN TO
KICK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
CONVECTION STARTING TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS TO A WAVE AND MOVES ACROSS TEXAS. SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCES FOR
ANY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
MODELS SHOWING MODERATE AMOUNT OF CAPE MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK FOR DRY AND WARMER FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              86  60  86  68  85 /   0  -   20  50  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  85  56  85  66  84 /   0  -   20  50  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     86  57  85  66  86 /  -   -   20  50  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            85  58  85  66  85 /   0  -   20  50  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           86  65  86  71  95 /  -   -   20  40  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  83  66  83 /   0  -   20  50  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             86  60  85  68  89 /  -   -   30  50  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        84  58  83  67  83 /  -   -   20  50  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   85  60  85  69  84 /   0  -   20  40  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       84  60  83  68  85 /  -   -   30  50  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           84  60  84  68  86 /  -   -   30  50  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33