000
FXUS64 KEWX 121502 AAA
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1002 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013

.UPDATE...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN MEXICO LATE
THIS MORNING TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR MUCH OF
TODAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG THE
LOWER RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE SERRANIAS DEL
BURRO MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY
GRIDS. REST OF FIRST FORECAST PERIOD IS ON TRACK. NEW ZONES OUT
SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

AVIATION...
VFR CATEGORY FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CIGS AT DRT WILL SPREAD TO
THE EAST INTO THE SAN ANTONIO AND AUSTIN AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.
CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2013/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER BAJA AREA WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY WITH A WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER S TX
THROUGH MONDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AFFECT THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS MAINLY TODAY...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. NORTHEAST-EASTERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST.

LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW INCREASES MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST BEGINS TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS. WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TUESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. RAINS WILL END FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY WITH A NWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING THURSDAY. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ORGANIZED STORMS IN THE NWLY FLOW THURSDAY...AND
HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE NERN CWA FOR THIS REASON.
MORE RIDGING ALOFT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SO HAVE KEEP FORECAST
DRY WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              83  57  86  60  83 /  -   -   -   -   30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  82  53  85  57  82 /  -   -   -   -   30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     84  55  86  60  82 /  -   -   -   -   40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            81  55  85  58  83 /  -   -   -   -   30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           85  63  88  66  86 /  10  -   -   20  20
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        81  54  84  58  82 /  -   -   -   -   30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             84  57  86  61  83 /  -   -   -   10  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        83  55  84  59  82 /  -   -   -   -   30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   84  58  85  61  83 /  -   -   -   -   40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       83  58  84  61  82 /  -   -   -   10  40
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           83  59  84  62  83 /  -   -   -   10  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33