000
FXUS64 KEWX 132353
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
653 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

.DISCUSSION...

SEE AVIATION FOR 00Z TAFS.

&&

.AVIATION...

A 500 HPA LOW WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH TO
THE WESTERN PART OF TEXAS FRIDAY AND THEN DRIFT NORTHEAST TO
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE CONTINUED
VERY HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ALONG WITH
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. THROUGH 05Z SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
NEAR 5 THSD FT...WITH CIGS AOA 10 THSD FT AND SCT SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED ALONG AND WEST OF A KPEZ TO KSAT TO KBMQ LINE...WHILE
EAST OF THIS LINE...5 THSD TO 10 THSD SCT WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS
AOA 25 THSD FT IS EXPECTED...WITH ISOLATED SHRA.  AFTER 05Z CIGS
AROUND 1 THSD TO 2 THSD FT BKN ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH
SCT SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WEST OF A KERV TO KHDO TO PEARSALL
LINE.  AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...SCT TO BKN CLOUDS AT 4 THSD TO 6 THSD
FT WITH CIGS ABOVE 10 THSD FT IS EXPECTED...WITH SCT SHRA AND
TSRA...MORE NUMEROUS ALONG AND WEST OF A KERV TO KHDO TO
PEARSALL LINE. S AND SE WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL
BE NEAR 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WITH HEATING ACROSS THE SRN/WRN
HALF OF S CENTRAL...MOVING NWD. THIS DEEP CONVECTION WAS AIDED BY
THE PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER NE MEXICO/BIG BEND REGION THAT HAS
CAUSE PW`S TO CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONVECTION
WILL SPREAD TO NWD TO THE REMAINING NRN/NERN CWA OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOCALLY INTENSE DOWNPOURS. STRONG WIND GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH ALSO POSSIBLE AS STORM OUTFLOWS WILL BE AIDED BY THE
BRISK NWD MOVEMENT AND STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
IN THE LATE EVENING...BUT PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE NNEWD FRIDAY...HOWEVER A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
REMAIN WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
THRU FRIDAY NIGHT. PERSISTENCE REMAINS THE BEST TEMPERATURE
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NEWD OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...SHOULD SEE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDING INTO
THE REGION WHICH WILL DECREASE RAIN CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF & DGEX HOWEVER SHOW A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX TUE-WED...WHILE THE GFS/CANADIAN KEEP THESE
FEATURES FURTHER NORTH IN NORTH TX WITH MORE RIDGING ACROSS S TX.
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AND WARMER FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  95  77  96  77 /  10  -   10  -   -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  94  74  95  74 /  10  -   10  -   -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  93  74  94  74 /  10  10  10  -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            74  93  74  93  74 /  10  10  10  10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  91  77  95  77 /  50  40  30  20  10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  95  73  95  73 /  10  -   10  10  -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  92  75  94  75 /  30  20  20  -   10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  93  73  93  73 /  10  -   10  -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  95  76  94  76 /  10  -   10  10  10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  76  93  76 /  30  20  10  -   -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  93  75  94  75 /  30  20  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...08/10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...05/01
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...12