Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 051725
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-191730-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1225 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...LATE MAY RAINFALL RALLY HELPED TO TEMPORARILY IMPROVE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH  CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

AFTER A VERY DRY START TO MAY...THE SECOND WEEK AND FINAL WEEK OF
MAY SAW SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENTS THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND EVENT PRODUCED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH A FEW LOCATIONS RECEIVING AS MUCH AS
8 INCHES. THERE WERE EVEN UNCONFIRMED REPORTS OF 10 INCHES IN A
FEW SPOTS. THE WESTERN AREAS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DID NOT FARE AS
WELL AND GENERALLY SAW LESS THAN ONE INCH OF RAINFALL. SOME
LOCATIONS HAD NOT SEEN THIS TYPE OF RAINFALL FOR NEARLY A YEAR.
THE RAINFALL EVENT DURING THE LAST WEEK IN MAY FINALLY PRODUCED
RUNOFF IN AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS AND THIS RESULTED IN RISES ON
MANY LAKES. RISES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 3 TO 7 FOOT RANGE. MEDINA
LAKE SAW A RISE OF 7 FEET. WITHOUT CONTINUED RAINFALL MUCH OF
THESE GAINS WILL QUICKLY EVAPORATE AND LEVELS WILL FALL QUICKLY
WITH THE INCREASED EVAPORATION RATES OF SUMMER. THE RECENT
RAINFALL EVENT DID PUSH MOST LOCATIONS TO ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL
FOR THE MONTH. RAINFALL DEFICITS FOR THE YEAR ALSO GREATLY
IMPROVED. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE WEST HAVE SEEN 25 PERCENT OR LESS
OF THEIR YEARLY RAINFALL TO DATE. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES NEAR EARLY JUNE AVERAGES AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE RAINFALL DURING THE WEEK OF JUNE 12TH. SHORT
TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS HAVE IMPROVED DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY THE MAIN SHORT TERM IMPACTS ARE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE. RANCHERS ARE REPORTING STOCK TANKS
DID SHOW INCREASES FOLLOWING THE MAY RAINFALL EVENTS. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS HAVE DECREASED WITH THE WETTING RAINFALL. IN AREAS THAT
DID NOT SEE RAINFALL FIRE DANGERS CONTINUE AT ELEVATED LEVELS.
LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A
MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT. RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS
ARE VERY LOW AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE
FREQUENT RAINFALL EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SUMMER 2014. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN EL NINO
WATCH...SAYING THERE IS AT LEAST A 65 PERCENT CHANCE AN EL NINO
EVENT WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUMMER OR EARLY FALL. EVEN THOUGH LA
NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER
PATTERNS TOO... SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST BE LOOKING AT ONE
PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR
THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID JUNE 3RD AND ISSUED ON JUNE 5TH
INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED ACROSS THE WESTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAINS. MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4)
CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE (D1) TO SEVERE (D2) DROUGHT STATUS.
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS REMAIN IN EXTREME (D3) TO
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

CURRENTLY 68 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND 9 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING LOW
FIRE DANGER. IF WETTING RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER
THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF JUNE 4TH...COUNTY-WIDE BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 4
COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED
OUTDOOR BURN BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
UVALDE
VAL VERDE
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA  FAYETTE      LAVACA
BANDERA   FRIO         LLANO
BASTROP   GILLESPIE    LEE
BLANCO    GONZALES     MAVERICK
BURNET    GUADALUPE    MEDINA
CALDWELL  HAYS         REAL
COMAL     KARNES       TRAVIS
DEWITT    KENDALL      WILLIAMSON
DIMMIT    KERR         ZAVALA
EDWARDS   KINNEY

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL CITY OR
COUNTY WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING
TO CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE JUNE 5TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED THE
FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

      0-200            200-300    300-400   400-500   500-600

BASTROP    KENDALL     ATASCOSA   BANDERA   EDWARDS   DIMMIT
BLANCO     LAVACA      BEXAR      MEDINA    FRIO      VAL VERDE
BURNET     LEE         COMAL      UVALDE    KINNEY
CALDWELL   LLANO       DEWITT               MAVERICK
FAYETTE    TRAVIS      GUADALUPE            ZAVALA
GILLESPIE  WILLIAMSON  KARNES
GONZALES   WILSON      KERR
HAYS                   REAL

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE REGION RECEIVED FROM 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN...WHICH HEAVILY
SATURATED TOPSOILS...BUT GREATLY IMPROVED PASTURES AND RANGELAND.
MEDINA LAKE LEVELS ROSE AN ESTIMATED 5 TO 6 FEET...WITH REPORTS OF
FLASH FLOODING IN THE HILL COUNTRY. EARLY VARIETY PEACHES WERE
BEING HARVESTED...WITH THE HARVESTING OF LATER VARIETIES EXPECTED
TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. IRRIGATED COTTON AND GRAIN
SORGHUM WERE PLANTED. WINTER WHEAT AND OATS WERE MOSTLY
HARVESTED...BUT THE HARVESTING OF THE LAST FIELDS WAS DELAYED DUE
TO SATURATED SOILS. STOCK-WATER TANKS CAUGHT A LOT OF WATER...
AND LIVESTOCK CONDITIONS REMAINED FAIR TO GOOD THROUGHOUT THE
REGION.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT JUNE 4, 2014 AND
DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY      11.08       14.20        -3.12          78%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM  11.82       12.52        -0.70          94%
SAN ANTONIO        7.36       12.54        -5.18          59%
DEL RIO            1.35        7.58        -6.23          18%

FOR JUNE TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED NO RAIN. THIS IS 0.38 OF
AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.38 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 85.9 DEGREES. THIS IS 3.6 DEGREES
ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 82.3 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS RECEIVED
NO RAIN. THIS IS 0.57 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF
0.57 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 82.1 DEGREES. THIS IS
1.4 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.7 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS
IS 0.67 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.67 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR MAY TO DATE IS 81.8 DEGREES. THIS
IS 1.5 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 80.3 DEGREES.

FOR JUNE TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED A TRACE OF RAIN. THIS IS 0.47 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL
OF  OF 0.47 OF AN INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE AUSTIN
BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR JUNE TO DATE IS 80.9 DEGREES.
THIS IS 1.6 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 79.3 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED JUNE 4 AND VALID JUNE 12 THROUGH JUNE 18 WAS INDICATING
STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS AND NEAR AVERAGE ELSEWHERE. THERE WERE STRONGER
SIGNALS FOR BELOW AVERAGE RAINFALL.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR JULY 2014 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 2014...
CREATED ON MAY 15TH WAS INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON JUNE 19 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THE MAY RAINFALL.
MOST LOCATIONS STILL HAVE A DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR TO DATE. LAKE
LEVELS HAVE RISEN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS. WITH EVAPORATION RATES
GOING UP DUE TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES THE GAINS WE HAVE SEEN
WILL TURN INTO LOSSES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS WITHOUT
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) ACROSS
THE COLORADO...GUADALUPE...SAN ANTONIO...MEDINA...FRIO...NUECES
AND RIO GRANDE BASINS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF JUNE 5TH...

MOST LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

              CONSERVATION POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)                 (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD        1117                 1071.6           -45.4
MEDINA LAKE         1064.2                979.8           -84.4
CANYON LAKE          909                  900.9            +0.9
LAKE GEORGETOWN      791                  776.1           -14.9
LAKE BUCHANAN       1020                  990.4           -29.6
LAKE TRAVIS          681                  629.2           -51.8

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 3 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
35 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT    JUNE    DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE     MAY AVG       ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 640.6 FT  663.0 FT    -22.4 FT        648.0 FT     -7.4 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT HAS
DECLARED STAGE 2 ALARM DROUGHT STATUS. THIS REQUIRES A 20 PERCENT
REDUCTION IN PUMPING.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 3
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 3
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 3
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND JUNE 19 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$













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