Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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AXUS74 KEWX 201855
DGTEWX
TXC013-019-021-029-031-053-055-091-123-127-137-149-163-171-177-
187-209-255-259-265-271-285-287-299-323-325-385-453-463-465-491-
493-507-061900-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1255 PM CST THU FEB 20 2014

...DROUGHT CONDITIONS GETTING SLIGHTLY WORSE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

SYNOPSIS...

FEBRUARY HAS BEEN DRY AND COLD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
PAST WEEK HAS SEEN TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS FOR A
NICE PREVIEW OF SPRING. THE FEW RAINFALL EVENTS DURING THE FIRST
19 DAYS OF FEBRUARY PRODUCED LESS THAN ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION AT MOST LOCATIONS. FEBRUARY IS TYPICALLY ONE OF THE
DRIER MONTHS OF THE YEAR. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO NEAR AVERAGE AND EVEN BELOW AVERAGE
DURING THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 24TH. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH TOTALS
GENERALLY UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH. SHORT TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS
REMAIN AT A MINIMUM IN MANY LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
INCREASING DUE TO GRASSES THAT HAVE DRIED DUE TO RECENT FREEZES
AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. LONG TERM
IMPACTS CONTINUE SINCE WE HAVE BEEN IN A MULTIPLE YEAR DROUGHT.
RIVERS...LAKES...RESERVOIRS AND AQUIFERS REMAIN VERY LOW AND WILL
CONTINUE THAT WAY UNLESS WE CONTINUE TO SEE FREQUENT RAINFALL
EVENTS.

THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) IS FORECASTING THE ENSO (EL
NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO
SPRING 2014. EVEN THOUGH LA NINA AND EL NINO EVENTS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION...OTHER CIRCULATIONS ACROSS
THE GLOBE HELP DRIVE WEATHER PATTERNS TOO...SO WE SHOULD NOT JUST
BE LOOKING AT ONE PATTERN...BUT OTHERS AS WELL TO POTENTIALLY
PROVIDE RAINFALL FOR THE REGION.

THE US DROUGHT MONITOR (USDM) VALID FEBRUARY 18TH AND ISSUED ON
FEBRUARY 20TH INDICATED DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE GOTTEN A LITTLE
WORSE ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS DURING
THE LAST WEEK. ABNORMALLY DRY (D0) TO EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)
CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOST LOCATIONS
ARE CURRENTLY IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO SEVERE DROUGHT (D2)
STATUS. THERE CONTINUED TO BE POCKETS OF EXTREME DROUGHT (D3)
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND PORTIONS THE HILL COUNTRY...MAINLY
IN GILLESPIE...KERR...BANDERA AND MEDINA COUNTIES.

CURRENTLY 58 PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT (D1) TO
EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT (D4) AND ONE PERCENT OF THE STATE IS IN
EXCEPTIONAL (D4) DROUGHT STATUS.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...

FIRE DANGER WAS MODERATE TO HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. IF WETTING
RAINFALL IS NOT OBSERVED THEN FIRE DANGER THREATS WILL INCREASE.

AS OF FEBRUARY 20TH...BURN BANS WERE IN EFFECT FOR 8 COUNTIES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE COUNTIES WITH ESTABLISHED OUTDOOR BURN
BANS INCLUDE:

BEXAR
CALDWELL
HAYS
KENDALL
KERR
LLANO
TRAVIS
WILSON

COUNTIES THAT CURRENTLY HAVE NO BURN BANS IN PLACE:

ATASCOSA     EDWARDS       LAVACA         ZAVALA
BANDERA      FAYETTE       LEE
BASTROP      FRIO          MAVERICK
BLANCO       GILLESPIE     MEDINA
BURNET       GONZALES      REAL
COMAL        GUADALUPE     UVALDE
DEWITT       KARNES        WILLIAMSON
DIMMIT       KINNEY        VAL VERDE

RESIDENTS IN ALL COUNTIES SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL COUNTY
WEB SITE...JUDGE`S OFFICE OR FIRE MARSHALL BEFORE DECIDING TO
CONDUCT ANY TYPE OF OUTDOOR BURNING AS BURN BANS MAY BE ISSUED
BEFORE THE NEXT UPDATE OF THIS DROUGHT STATEMENT.

THE FEBRUARY 20TH COUNTY KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI) SHOWED
THE FOLLOWING KBDI VALUES:

KBDI VALUES:

0-200       200-300    300-400    400-500   500-600

BURNET      BASTROP    BEXAR      ATASCOSA  DEWITT
LEE         BLANCO     GILLESPIE  BANDERA   KARNES
TRAVIS      CALDWELL   GONZALES   FRIO
WILLIAMSON  COMAL      KERR       MEDINA
            DIMMIT     KINNEY
            EDWARDS    LAVACA
            FAYETTE    MAVERICK
            GUADALUPE  UVALDE
            HAYS       VAL VERDE
            KENDALL    WILSON
            LLANO      ZAVALA
            REAL

THE TEXAS FOREST SERVICE USES THE KBDI AS A MEANS FOR RELATING
CURRENT AND RECENT WEATHER CONDITIONS TO POTENTIAL OR EXPECTED
FIRE BEHAVIOR. THE KBDI IS A NUMERICAL INDEX CALCULATED DAILY FOR
EACH COUNTY. EACH NUMBER IS AN ESTIMATE OF THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...IN HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH...NEEDED TO BRING THE
SOIL BACK TO SATURATION. THE INDEX RANGES FROM ZERO TO 800...WITH
ZERO REPRESENTING A SATURATED SOIL AND 800 A COMPLETELY DRY SOIL.
REMEMBER...THAT FIRE DANGER CAN CHANGE QUICKLY FROM ONE DAY TO
ANOTHER AS WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VARY.

AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...

THE TEXAS CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY TEXAS A AND M
AGRICULTURAL ON FEBRUARY 18TH INDICATED...WARMER TEMPERATURES
CAUSED TREES TO BUD AND HARDIER WEEDS TO EMERGE. RANGELAND AND
OTHER CROPS FURTHER DECLINED DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS. PRODUCERS WERE
PREPARING FIELDS FOR PLANTING CORN AND COTTON. LIVESTOCK PRODUCERS
CONTINUED SUPPLEMENTAL FEEDING OF CATTLE AND EFFORTS TO MAKE WATER
ACCESSIBLE FOR BOTH LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES...BEFORE TURNING COOLER DURING THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 24TH.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MINIMAL ACROSS THE REGION AND AMOUNTS SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

PRECIPITATION FROM JANUARY 1, 2014 TO MIDNIGHT FEBRUARY 19, 2014
AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

                   2014        NORMAL     DEPARTURE     PERCENT
LOCATION         RAINFALL     TO DATE    FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY       0.72        3.58        -2.86          20%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM   0.80        3.82        -3.02          21%
SAN ANTONIO        0.44        2.99        -2.55          15%
DEL RIO            0.03        1.30        -1.27           2%

PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER 1, 2013 AND DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL:

LOCATION        RAINFALL SINCE   NORMAL    DEPARTURE     PERCENT
                 DECEMBER 1ST             FROM NORMAL   OF NORMAL

AUSTIN MABRY         1.44         5.98       -4.54         24%
AUSTIN BERGSTROM     1.66         6.07       -4.41         27%
SAN ANTONIO          0.99         4.90       -3.91         20%
DEL RIO              0.51         1.98       -1.44         26%

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...DEL RIO HAS RECEIVED 0.03 OF AN INCH OF
RAIN. THIS IS 0.55 OF AN INCH BELOW THE NORMAL OF 0.58 OF AN
INCH. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 54.0
DEGREES. THIS IS 1.8 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 55.8 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...SAN ANTONIO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.21 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.02 INCHES BELOW THE
NORMAL OF 1.23 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE SAN ANTONIO
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS 55.5 DEGREES. THIS
IS 0.8 DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL OF 54.7 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN MABRY HAS RECEIVED 0.27 OF AN INCH
OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.09 INCHES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 1.36 INCHES.
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT AUSTIN MABRY FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS
52.4 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.7 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 54.1 DEGREES.

FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE...AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 0.23 OF AN INCH OF RAIN. THIS IS 1.36 INCHES BELOW
THE NORMAL OF 1.59 INCHES. THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FOR FEBRUARY TO DATE IS
50.0 DEGREES. THIS IS 1.3 DEGREES BELOW THE NORMAL OF 51.3 DEGREES.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS INDICATES ONLY MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY. DURING
THE WEEK OF FEBRUARY 24TH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE
WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME RAINFALL.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
ISSUED FEBRUARY 19 AND VALID FEBRUARY 27 THROUGH MARCH 5 WAS
INDICATING NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. SIGNALS WERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION.

THE LONGER RANGE OUTLOOK FOR MARCH 2014 THROUGH MAY 2014...
CREATED ON FEBRUARY 20TH WERE INDICATING STRONGER SIGNALS FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THERE WERE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR
AVERAGE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE PRECIPITATION...WHICH
INDICATES PRECIPITATION WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE
PERIOD. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE UPDATED AGAIN ON MARCH 20 2014.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

SHORT TERM RAINFALL DEFICITS ARE INCREASING DUE TO BELOW AVERAGE
PRECIPITATION SINCE DECEMBER. LAKE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
INCREASES OR HOLDING NEARLY STATIONARY. AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE DURING THE SPRING AND INTO SUMMER THE EVAPORATION RATES
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE.

LONG TERM DROUGHT IMPACTS TO AREA AQUIFERS...LAKES AND RESERVOIRS
CONTINUE.

THE 7 DAY STREAM FLOW AVERAGES WERE MUCH BELOW NORMAL (LESS THAN
10 PERCENT) ACROSS THE GUADALUPE...MEDINA...FRIO AND NUECES RIVER
BASINS. BELOW NORMAL (10-24 PERCENT) FLOWS WERE SEEN ACROSS
COLORADO AND SAN ANTONIO RIVER BASINS. THE RIO GRANDE REPORTED
NORMAL (25-75 PERCENT) FLOWS.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS AS OF FEBRUARY 20TH...

LAKES...RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL POOL
ELEVATIONS.

BELOW IS A LIST OF RESERVOIRS WITH THE LATEST ELEVATIONS AND
NORMAL POOLS.

                NORMAL POOL    LATEST ELEVATION    DIFFERENCE
                    (FT)             (FT)             (FT)

LAKE AMISTAD       1117             1081.9           -35.1
MEDINA LAKE        1064.2            974.9           -89.3
CANYON LAKE         909              900.9            -8.1
LAKE GEORGETOWN     791              776.3           -14.7
LAKE BUCHANAN      1020              989.4           -30.6
LAKE TRAVIS         681              627.9           -53.1

RESTRICTIONS...

THE SAN ANTONIO WATER SYSTEM (SAWS) IS CURRENTLY IN STAGE 2 WATER
RESTRICTIONS. SAWS PLANS TO RETAIN THE STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
DESPITE PERIODS WHEN THE DECLINE OF THE EDWARDS AQUIFER 10-DAY
AVERAGE FALLS TO BELOW 640 FEET WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR STAGE
3 RESTRICTIONS.

THE EDWARDS AQUIFER AUTHORITY HAS DECLARED STAGE 2 RESTRICTIONS
WHICH MEANS THE LARGE USERS OF WATER MUST REDUCE THEIR PUMPING BY
30 PERCENT.

LATEST READINGS FROM THE EDWARDS AQUIFER:

 CURRENT   FEBRUARY   DEPARTURE FROM    2013 LEVEL   DEPARTURE
  LEVEL    AVERAGE    FEBRUARY AVG     ON THIS DATE  FROM 2013

 642.0 FT   669.9 FT    -27.9 FT         652.4 FT    -10.4 FT

MANY COMMUNITIES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS CONTINUE TO HAVE
WATER RESTRICTIONS IN PLACE TO DUE LACK OF CONSISTENT RAINFALL.
STRICTER RESTRICTIONS COULD BE IMPLEMENTED AT ANY TIME IF THE
DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS PERSIST.

THE BARTON SPRINGS EDWARDS AQUIFER CONSERVATION DISTRICT IS
CURRENTLY IN NON-DROUGHT.

LOCATION          CURRENT WATER RESTRICTIONS

UVALDE                    STAGE 5
FREDERICKSBURG            STAGE 4
NEW BRAUNFELS             STAGE 2
SAN MARCOS                STAGE 2
AUSTIN                    STAGE 2
KERRVILLE                 STAGE 1
SEGUIN                    STAGE 1 NORMAL/AWARENESS WATER STAGE

ALL CITIES CONTINUE TO WARN RESIDENTS THAT STRICTER RESTRICTIONS
COULD RETURN AT ANY TIME IF DRIER CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

LOCATIONS THAT DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE MANDATORY RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE TO STRONGLY PROMOTE YEAR ROUND WATER CONSERVATION.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

THIS STATEMENT WILL BE UPDATED AROUND MARCH 6 2014 OR SOONER IF
NECESSARY.

&&

RELATED WEB SITES...

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THE DROUGHT IMPACTING SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...PLEASE VISIT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES.
(ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN ALL LOWER CASE)

AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/AUSTIN

NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.NOAA.GOV

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR:
HTTP://DROUGHTMONITOR.UNL.EDU/

OFFICE OF THE TEXAS STATE CLIMATOLOGIST:
HTTP://CLIMATEXAS.TAMU.EDU/

UNITED STATES GEOLOGIC SURVEY (USGS):
HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV/

UNITED STATES ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS (USACE):
HTTP://WWW.SWF.USACE.ARMY.MIL/

INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARY AND WATER COMMISSION:
HTTP://WWW.IBWC.STATE.GOV

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

THE DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA
CENTER...THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGIST AND
THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. INFORMATION FOR THIS
STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA OBSERVATION
SITES...STATE COOPERATIVE EXTENSION SERVICES...THE USACE AND
USGS.

QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUND THIS DROUGHT
INFORMATION STATEMENT...PLEASE CONTACT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
2090 AIRPORT ROAD
NEW BRAUNFELS TEXAS  78130
830-606-3617

$$










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